🏗️ New Construction
Heather Plan · Kansas City, MO
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,054 – $1,958
Heat risk 4/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 105°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Cash flow +4.9/30.0
- Rent growth +4.9/5.0
- Schools +4.9/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.9/5.0
- 1% rule +0.7/10.0
- DSCR +0.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$380,800
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Our Heather home plan is the perfect ranch plan, greeted immediately by a large great room featuring an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living room space. The primary bedroom is located on the main level, at the back of the home, with a private bathroom featuring a stunning walk-in shower and a large walk-in closet. The main floor also features the 2nd and 3rd bedrooms, which are conveniently located next to the full bath and laundry room. Looking for additional space? Consider finishing the lower level to include a rec room, additional 1-2 bedrooms, and an extra bathroom, enhancing the versatility and functionality of your home.
Key facts
- Open-concept kitchen
- Walk-in closet
- Laundry room
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $381k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (24.1% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (33.6% below list).
- Recommended offer: $253k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 78/100 on livability (#28 in MO, #2,671 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
- Liberty 53 (suburban): math 41% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 324 in MO (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Zoned schools: Warren Hills Elem. (math 48% / reading 60%, grade C, #215 of 1,115 statewide, top 20%, 603 students, 20% FRL); South Valley Middle (math 33% / reading 53%, grade D-, #134 of 391 statewide, top 35%, 791 students, 18% FRL); Liberty North High School (math 25% / reading 75%, grade D+, #116 of 521 statewide, top 22%, 2,326 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.5%/yr); 287 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 341 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Clay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.57% ✗
- Cap rate
- 3.43%
- Cash-on-cash
- -10.23%
- DSCR
- 0.54
- GRM
- 14.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $441,699
- List price
- $380,800
- Delta
- -13.79%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11119 N Crescent Ct | 0.12mi | 3/2.0 | 1,518 (0%) | 0mo | $446,020 | $294 | 94 |
| 9420 NE 111th Pl | 0.09mi | 3/2.0 | 1,649 (+9%) | 0mo | $476,957 | $289 | 81 |
| 11424 N Ditzler Ave | 0.50mi | 3/2.5 | 1,572 (+4%) | 2mo | $325,000 | $207 | 67 |
| 8916 NE 114th Ter | 0.60mi | 3/2.0 | 1,560 (+3%) | 2mo | $268,800 | $172 | 66 |
| 8903 NE 109th St | 0.58mi | 3/2.5 | 1,584 (+4%) | 0mo | $340,000 | $215 | 63 |
| 11027 N Mckinley Ave | 0.70mi | 3/2.5 | 1,521 (+0%) | 2mo | $359,000 | $236 | 63 |
| 9319 NE 116th Ter | 0.68mi | 3/2.0 | 1,472 (-3%) | 1mo | $335,000 | $228 | 62 |
| 11114 N Lewis Ave | 0.67mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,469 (-3%) | 2mo | $300,000 | $204 | 57 |
| 11502 N Laurel Ave | 0.59mi | 3/2.0 | 1,360 (-10%) | 2mo | $343,000 | $252 | 54 |
| 11428 N Farley Ave | 0.74mi | 3/2.0 | 1,652 (+9%) | 2mo | $325,000 | $197 | 49 |
| 10727 N Lane Ave | 0.54mi | 3/2.5 | 1,733 (+14%) | 2mo | $369,950 | $213 | 48 |
| 8637 NE 112th St | 0.73mi | 3/2.5 | 1,737 (+14%) | 1mo | $340,000 | $196 | 39 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -29.4%
- Equity multiple
- -0.01×
- Total profit
- $-125,326
- Equity at exit
- $65,859
- IRR
- -16.2%
- Equity multiple
- -0.09×
- Total profit
- $-134,615
- Equity at exit
- $38,190
Cash invested: $123,676 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Missouri
- 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 9 active · 32 under contract
- Months of supply
- 1.3 mo (74%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $380,200 ($239/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 136 d
- This list price
- 56% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +22.0% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 64157
- Home prices YoY
- -18.1%
- Rents YoY
- 9.5%
- Active inventory
- 287
- Price-to-rent
- 12.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,529 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,316
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$552 /mo · $6,625/yr
- Insurance
- −$184
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$531
- Net cashflow
- $-1,054
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-749 | -5% $-902 | +0% $-1,054 | +5% $-1,207 | +10% $-1,360 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-1,254 | -5% $-1,154 | +0% $-1,054 | +5% $-955 | +10% $-855 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-832 | -0.5pp $-942 | base $-1,054 | +0.5pp $-1,169 | +1.0pp $-1,285 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $110,425
- Closing costs
- $13,251
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 8 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11108 N Lewis Ave Kansas City, MO | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1494 | $2,076 | $1.39 | 11d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 11624 N Manning Ave Kansas City, MO | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1500 | $2,250 | $1.50 | 20d | 1 | 0.78mi |
| 11624 N Manning Ave Kansas City, MO | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1500 | $2,400 | $1.60 | 37d | 1 | 0.78mi |
| 8810 NE 116th St Kansas City, MO | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1782 | $2,416 | $1.36 | 28d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 8952 NE 116th Pl Kansas City, MO | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2071 | $2,541 | $1.23 | 93d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 8519 NE 110th Ter Kansas City, MO | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1534 | $2,335 | $1.52 | 11d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 11500 N Wallace Ave Kansas City, MO | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1156 | $2,250 | $1.95 | 11d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 8505 NE 105th Ter Kansas City, MO | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1744 | $2,156 | $1.24 | 15d | 1 | 1.05mi |
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $380,800 Active 247 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $380,800 Active 246 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $380,800 Active 245 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $380,800 Active 244 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $380,800 Active 243 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $380,800 Active 242 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $380,800 Active 239 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $380,800 Active 238 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $380,800 Active 237 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $380,800 Active 236 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $380,800 Active 234 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $380,800 Active 232 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $380,800 Active 231 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $380,800 Active 230 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $380,800 Active 229 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $380,800 Active 228 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $380,800 Active 226 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $380,800 Active 225 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $380,800 Active 224 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $380,800 Active 223 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $380,800 Active 222 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $380,800 Active 221 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $380,800 Active 220 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $380,800 Active 219 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $380,800 Active 218 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $380,800 Active 217 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $380,800 Active 215 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $380,800 Active 214 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $380,800 Active 213 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $380,800 Active 211 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $380,800 Active 210 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $380,800 Active 209 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $380,800 Active 208 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $380,800 Active 207 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $380,800 Active 206 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $380,800 Active 205 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $380,800 Active 204 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $380,800 Active 202 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $380,800 Active 200 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $380,800 Active 199 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $380,800 Active 196 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $380,800 Active 195 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $380,800 Active 194 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $380,800 Active 193 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $380,800 Active 191 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $380,800 Active 187 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $380,800 Active 186 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $380,800 Active 185 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $380,800 Active 181 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $380,800 Active 180 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $30,350
- − Mortgage interest
- −$24,742
- − Property taxes
- −$6,625
- − Insurance
- −$2,208
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,428
- − Management
- −$2,428
- − Depreciation
- −$12,849
- Taxable loss
- −$20,931
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$5,023
- After-tax cash flow
- $-7,630/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This well-maintained ranch-style home with a modern design and open floor plan is ready for immediate move-in. It offers a good condition score and potential for minor updates to increase its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Updating the flooring in the bedrooms — Carpeted floors in bedrooms can be replaced with hardwood or tile for a more modern look and easier maintenance. ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Liberty 53
- NCES district ID
- 2918540
- Math proficiency
- 41% ▼ -9.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 59% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $78,226
- Composite
- 45.41/100
- National rank
- #2624
- State rank
- #24 of 324 in MO
Livability — Kansas City
- Score
- 78/100
- State rank
- #28
- US rank
- #2671
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Kansas City, MO
- County
- Clay County · 266,022 people
- City population
- 439,467
- Metro
- Kansas City, MO-KS
- Population (ZIP)
- 23,030
- Household income
- $149,526
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 17% of renters
Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 266,022 people
- By 2030
- 280,057 · +5.3%
- By 2040
- 306,153 · +15.1%
- By 2050
- 328,630 · +23.5%
- By 2075
- 375,182 · +41.0%
- By 2100
- 392,861 · +47.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (82%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 82% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Clay
- 2024 margin
- Lean R (+5.6) · D 46.4% · R 52.0% · Other 1.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -0.7pp · 2024: -5.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+5.6 2020: R+4.1 2016: R+11.1 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+0.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -43.38%
- Current HPI
- 195.9921
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 9.50%
- Metro
- Kansas City, MO-KS
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.84%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 1 | $163B |
|
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| Insurance | 1 | $21B |
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| Industrial Technology | 1 | $17B |
|
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| Retail | 1 | $16B |
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| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $10B |
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| Utilities | 1 | $9B |
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Price history
-3.6% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-01-02 Price Changed $380,800 Zillow
- 2025-12-04 Listed $394,900 Zillow
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…