19690 N Highway 99 #164 · Lodi, CA 95220

$116,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured · 11 Days on market

Built 1980 Fair condition 25 ac lot Est $127k · 8% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, spacious and well maintained home, tucked away near the vineyards on a quiet court in the family friendly Arbor MHP! Some of the many features include the big, open kitchen with loads of counter space and cupboards, formal living room, formal dining area, and a separate area that could be used for casual dining or family room, has a sliding glass door to the private covered deck. The primary bedroom suite has a large bathroom with a tub! The inside laundry room has a lot of storage and folding counter or crafts area. The lot is pie shaped with roses, an orange tree and 2 sheds. All of this in the heart of the Lodi Wine Country with vineyards and wineries all around! Bike to Charming Woodbridge or Lake Lodi, minutes drive to shopping, downtown Lodi, or the Delta! Great location! Less than an hour to historic Sutter Creek and Jackson, Old Town Sacramento and lots of other fun things to see and do!

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Basketball court
• Two storage sheds

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• TWO COVERED CARPORT SPACES
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• SWIMMING POOL
• BASKETBALL COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $976 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $116k).
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 3.0% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $802 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.05%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,672
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19690 N Hwy 99 #27	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+3%)	0mo	$130,000	$90	86
19690 N Highway 99 #8	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-3%)	0mo	$145,000	$108	85
19690 N Hwy 99 #89	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,439 (+3%)	14mo	$100,000	$69	82
19690 N Hwy 99 #143	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-3%)	13mo	$130,000	$97	79
19690 Highway 99 #147	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+3%)	14mo	$110,000	$76	78
19690 N Hwy 99 #110	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+10%)	2mo	$124,000	$81	77
19690 N Highway 99 #26	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+10%)	3mo	$140,000	$91	75
19690 N Highway 99 #170	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	23mo	$100,000	$69	74
19690 N Hwy 99 #39	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-3%)	23mo	$181,000	$135	67
19690 N Hwy 99 #3	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-10%)	21mo	$55,000	$44	65
19690 N Ca-99 #71	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (-12%)	23mo	$140,000	$114	55
19690 N Highway 99 #44	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (-12%)	22mo	$164,900	$134	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $43,380
• Equity at exit: $17,296

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $117,932
• Equity at exit: $10,030

Cash invested: $32,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95220

• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$145 /mo · $1,740/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $976

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,015

Max offer price $116,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,000
• Closing costs: $3,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Sonora Ave Lodi, CA	3.0	1.0	1032	$2,149	$2.08	2d	1	1.39mi
15 Forrest Ave Lodi, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $116,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $116,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $116,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2021-10-20
   soldstatus $125,000 Sold 919-char remark

   Show marketing remark (919 chars)

   Beautiful, spacious and well maintained home, tucked away near the vineyards on a quiet court in the family friendly Arbor MHP! Some of the many features include the big, open kitchen with loads of counter space and cupboards, formal living room, formal dining area, and a separate area that could be used for casual dining or family room, has a sliding glass door to the private covered deck. The primary bedroom suite has a large bathroom with a tub! The inside laundry room has a lot of storage and folding counter or crafts area. The lot is pie shaped with roses, an orange tree and 2 sheds. All of this in the heart of the Lodi Wine Country with vineyards and wineries all around! Bike to Charming Woodbridge or Lake Lodi, minutes drive to shopping, downtown Lodi, or the Delta! Great location! Less than an hour to historic Sutter Creek and Jackson, Old Town Sacramento and lots of other fun things to see and do!

5. 2021-10-13
   status Pending (Do Not Show) 919-char remark

   Show marketing remark (919 chars)

   Beautiful, spacious and well maintained home, tucked away near the vineyards on a quiet court in the family friendly Arbor MHP! Some of the many features include the big, open kitchen with loads of counter space and cupboards, formal living room, formal dining area, and a separate area that could be used for casual dining or family room, has a sliding glass door to the private covered deck. The primary bedroom suite has a large bathroom with a tub! The inside laundry room has a lot of storage and folding counter or crafts area. The lot is pie shaped with roses, an orange tree and 2 sheds. All of this in the heart of the Lodi Wine Country with vineyards and wineries all around! Bike to Charming Woodbridge or Lake Lodi, minutes drive to shopping, downtown Lodi, or the Delta! Great location! Less than an hour to historic Sutter Creek and Jackson, Old Town Sacramento and lots of other fun things to see and do!

6. 2021-09-30
   historical Contingent 919-char remark

   Show marketing remark (919 chars)

   Beautiful, spacious and well maintained home, tucked away near the vineyards on a quiet court in the family friendly Arbor MHP! Some of the many features include the big, open kitchen with loads of counter space and cupboards, formal living room, formal dining area, and a separate area that could be used for casual dining or family room, has a sliding glass door to the private covered deck. The primary bedroom suite has a large bathroom with a tub! The inside laundry room has a lot of storage and folding counter or crafts area. The lot is pie shaped with roses, an orange tree and 2 sheds. All of this in the heart of the Lodi Wine Country with vineyards and wineries all around! Bike to Charming Woodbridge or Lake Lodi, minutes drive to shopping, downtown Lodi, or the Delta! Great location! Less than an hour to historic Sutter Creek and Jackson, Old Town Sacramento and lots of other fun things to see and do!

7. 2021-09-24
   listed $130,000 Active 919-char remark

   Show marketing remark (919 chars)

   Beautiful, spacious and well maintained home, tucked away near the vineyards on a quiet court in the family friendly Arbor MHP! Some of the many features include the big, open kitchen with loads of counter space and cupboards, formal living room, formal dining area, and a separate area that could be used for casual dining or family room, has a sliding glass door to the private covered deck. The primary bedroom suite has a large bathroom with a tub! The inside laundry room has a lot of storage and folding counter or crafts area. The lot is pie shaped with roses, an orange tree and 2 sheds. All of this in the heart of the Lodi Wine Country with vineyards and wineries all around! Bike to Charming Woodbridge or Lake Lodi, minutes drive to shopping, downtown Lodi, or the Delta! Great location! Less than an hour to historic Sutter Creek and Jackson, Old Town Sacramento and lots of other fun things to see and do!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,498
• − Property taxes: −$1,740
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$3,375
• Taxable income: $10,486
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,517
• After-tax cash flow: $9,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major exterior paint — Peeling and chipping
• Minor exterior roof — No visible damage
• Major interior paint — Worn and peeling
• Minor kitchen countertops — Standard and outdated
• Minor bathroom tile — Standard and outdated
• Minor HVAC system — No visible damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both New flooring — Improves comfort and value
• Both New kitchen countertops — Modernizes the space and adds value
• Both New bathroom tile — Modernizes the space and adds value
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Peeling and chipping	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior roof · No visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paint · Worn and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen countertops · Standard and outdated	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom tile · Standard and outdated	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC system · No visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$47,000–162,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both New kitchen countertops — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Both New bathroom tile — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #21523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 78,944
• Population (ZIP): 7,958

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 22% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.06%
• Current HPI: 334.006
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2021-10-20 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MLSListings
• 2021-10-13 Pending — MLSListings
• 2021-09-30 Contingent — MLSListings
• 2021-09-24 Listed $130,000 MLSListings