23338 Prairie Bird Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,203 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1982 3,402 sqft lot $150/sqft · 5% below area Est $190k · 5% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the established Cypress Trails of Timberlane neighborhood. This beautifully updated property features a brand NEW roof, new energy-efficient windows, and stylish tile flooring throughout. Inside, you’ll find fresh paint, a modern kitchen with updated finishes, with contemporary fixtures. The spacious layout offers comfortable living areas perfect for families or entertaining. Enjoy outdoor living with a large backyard that includes a storage shed—ideal for tools, hobbies, or extra space. Conveniently situated near I-45, Hardy Toll Road, and major shopping and dining, this move-in ready home combines comfort, style, and an excellent location—perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking to downsize without sacrificing space.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Storage shed
• Tile flooring

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• TILE FLOORING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,800 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.14%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,523
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -5.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22843 Spruce Summit Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	21mo	$236,000	$171	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,889
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-19,042
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$388 /mo · $4,652/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,826

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    listed $180,000 Active 803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (803 chars)

    Fully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the established Cypress Trails of Timberlane neighborhood. This beautifully updated property features a brand NEW roof, new energy-efficient windows, and stylish tile flooring throughout. Inside, you’ll find fresh paint, a modern kitchen with updated finishes, with contemporary fixtures. The spacious layout offers comfortable living areas perfect for families or entertaining. Enjoy outdoor living with a large backyard that includes a storage shed—ideal for tools, hobbies, or extra space. Conveniently situated near I-45, Hardy Toll Road, and major shopping and dining, this move-in ready home combines comfort, style, and an excellent location—perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking to downsize without sacrificing space.

16. 2026-02-10
    historical
17. 2025-10-23
    listed $190,000 Active
18. 2022-10-28
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2022-09-23
    status Pending
20. 2022-09-15
    status Option Pending
21. 2022-09-10
    price $189,000
22. 2022-09-10
    status Active
23. 2022-08-18
    status Pending
24. 2022-08-11
    status Option Pending
25. 2022-08-06
    status Active
26. 2022-07-21
    status Pending
27. 2022-07-12
    status Option Pending
28. 2022-07-06
    listed $197,500 Active
29. 2017-10-27
    soldstatus
30. 2017-10-26
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2017-09-19
    status Pending, Continue to Show
32. 2017-08-14
    listed $112,000 Active
33. 2017-07-19
    soldstatus
34. 2017-07-18
    soldstatus Sold
35. 2017-06-29
    status Pending
36. 2017-06-24
    status Option Pending
37. 2017-06-21
    listed $70,000 Active
38. 1989-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,652 · $388/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,652 · $388/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$4,652
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $396
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$95
• After-tax cash flow: $3,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+157.1% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-09-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-10 Price Changed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-08-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-07-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-06 Listed $197,500 HARMLS
• 2017-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-10-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-09-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-08-14 Listed $112,000 HARMLS
• 2017-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-07-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-06-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-06-21 Listed $70,000 HARMLS
• 1989-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,652 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.