936 Jefferson Ave · St. Paul, MN 55102

$300,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1979 5,270 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Saint Paul home gives you the space and flexibility that can be hard to find. Inside, the main level features beautiful LVP flooring that adds a clean, modern look and is built to handle everyday living. The kitchen is both stylish and functional with granite countertops, a tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and a breakfast bar that makes a great spot for quick meals or casual conversation. Outside, the fenced backyard gives you room to enjoy the outdoors, garden, or let pets play, while the detached two-car garage provides convenient parking and extra storage. You’ll also appreciate the location, just minutes from the Ayd Mill Road biking and walking path, the bus line

Key facts

• Lvp flooring
• Granite countertops
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached/attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Asphalt parking; Garage dimensions approximately 24x25
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric with circuit breakers (100 Amp service)
• Home design: Residential property; One level (single-story) with lower-level living space; Main-level living area with additional finished lower level
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Partial chain link fencing; Public transit within about six blocks; Other on-site structure: garage(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on one level (main floor); Additional lower-level bedrooms/rooms available
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (one on main floor and one in the finished basement)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with egress window(s), storage space, and sump pump; Humidifier; Kitchen window; Main floor primary bedroom; Breakfast bar and informal dining area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Gas water heater; Utility room in lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,091 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.62%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,359
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-75,017
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55102

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$470 /mo · $5,640/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,745

Max offer price $279,947

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $300,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $310,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $315,000 762-char remark
15. 2026-05-07
    price $325,000 762-char remark
16. 2026-04-30
    price $335,000 762-char remark
17. 2026-04-24
    price $340,000 762-char remark
18. 2026-04-17
    listed $350,000 Active 762-char remark
19. 2026-03-20
    status Active
20. 2026-03-13
    listed $360,000 Active
21. 2026-03-12
    historical
22. 2026-03-02
    soldstatus $283,000
23. 2022-02-11
    historical
24. 2022-02-03
    price $2,060
25. 2021-11-17
    price $289,900
26. 2021-10-26
    price $294,900
27. 2021-10-01
    listed $299,900 Active
28. 2017-12-05
    soldstatus $244,450
29. 2017-11-15
    soldstatus $244,450 Sold
30. 2017-10-01
    status Pending
31. 2017-09-15
    status Active
32. 2017-09-14
    historical
33. 2017-09-12
    historical Contingent - Inspection
34. 2017-09-09
    listed $244,900 Active
35. 2017-09-07
    soldstatus $160,000
36. 2017-09-01
    soldstatus $137,500
37. 1993-12-21
    soldstatus $84,000
38. 1993-11-24
    soldstatus $84,000
39. 1993-09-28
    historical
40. 1993-06-01
    historical
41. 1993-05-24
    listed $91,500
42. 1993-05-24
    listed $91,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,640 · $470/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,640 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$5,640
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,497
• − Management: −$2,497
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,455
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,549
• After-tax cash flow: $187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 19,630
• Household income: $76,406
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.83%
• Current HPI: 241.7112
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+227.9% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $310,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $315,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $325,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $335,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $340,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $350,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $360,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $283,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $2,060 RENT.
• 2021-11-17 Price Changed $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-26 Price Changed $294,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-01 Listed $299,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $244,450 Public Records
• 2017-11-15 Sold (MLS) $244,450 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-01 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-15 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-12 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-09 Listed $244,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records
• 1993-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 1993-11-24 Sold (MLS) $84,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-09-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-06-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-05-24 Listed $91,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-05-24 Listed $91,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,640 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.