711 S 7th St · Kenedy, TX 78119-3049

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,951 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 461 Days on market

Built 1938 0.34 ac lot $69/sqft · 29% below area Est $191k · 29% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A charming, vintage home with lovely curb appeal and a welcoming presence. This home is ready for new owners to give it some TLC and make it their own!

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1938

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.1% in Kenedy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#822 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Kenedy ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #698 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Karnes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Karnes County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 461 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 461 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.18%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,554
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -29.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1004 S 7th	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,888 (-3%)	4mo	$85,000	$45	79
803 Carol St	0.14mi	3/2.0	2,029 (+4%)	7mo	$103,000	$51	77
703 S 9th	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,900 (-3%)	14mo	$335,000	$176	73
808 S 8th St	0.12mi	3/2.5	2,169 (+11%)	16mo	$360,000	$166	56
205 4th/tilden	0.42mi	3/3.0	1,904 (-2%)	16mo	$285,000	$150	55
1320 Ruhmann St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+3%)	4mo	$130,000	$64	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $26,634
• Equity at exit: $60,702

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $80,258
• Equity at exit: $93,549

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78119-3049

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,315 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,336/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,108

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 461 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 460 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 459 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 458 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 456 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 455 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 452 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 451 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 450 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 449 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 446 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 445 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 444 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 443 DOM
15. 2025-05-08
    price $135,000 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    A charming, vintage home with lovely curb appeal and a welcoming presence. This home is ready for new owners to give it some TLC and make it their own!

16. 2025-03-14
    listed $149,000 New 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    A charming, vintage home with lovely curb appeal and a welcoming presence. This home is ready for new owners to give it some TLC and make it their own!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,336 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,134/yr (+$95/mo · 84.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,336
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,262
• − Management: −$1,262
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$248
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$60
• After-tax cash flow: $2,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenedy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825440
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,961
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #8111
• State rank: #698 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kenedy

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #822
• US rank: #14883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kenedy, TX

Population outlook (Karnes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,734 people
• By 2030: 18,027 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 20,893 · +24.9%
• By 2050: 23,689 · +41.6%
• By 2075: 31,064 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 34,752 · +107.7%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $135,000 LERA
• 2025-03-14 Listed $149,000 LERA

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,336 · -13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.