569 Woodstock Ave · Tonawanda Town, NY 14150

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1956 6,932 sqft lot Est $258k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the highly desirable Green Acres neighborhood, 569 Woodstock presents a rare opportunity to customize a home in one of the area’s most sought-after communities. Known for its tree-lined streets, established homes, and convenient location, Green Acres continues to be a favorite for buyers looking for both charm and long-term value. This property offers solid rehab potential for renovation. The home is ready for updates and personal touches to truly make it shine. The basement requires remediation, making this an ideal project for investors, contractors, or buyers looking to build equity through improvements. Whether you’re envisioning a full renovation or strategic upd

Key facts

• Tree lined streets
• 6,932 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• GREEN ACRES NEIGHBORHOOD
• TREE LINED STREETS
• SOLID REHAB POTENTIAL
• IDEAL PROJECT FOR INVESTORS
• CANVAS IN A PREMIER LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $109k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.10%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,156
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
325 Glenalby Rd	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,238 (+2%)	2mo	$285,000	$230	93
482 Woodstock Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,199 (-1%)	3mo	$275,650	$230	88
25 Jamaica Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,150 (-5%)	3mo	$215,000	$187	68
1283 Brighton Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,225 (+1%)	1mo	$230,000	$188	67
401 Glenalby Rd Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,389 (+15%)	0mo	$249,900	$180	64
716 Brighton Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,224 (+1%)	1mo	$260,500	$213	64
59 Idlewood Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,119 (-8%)	2mo	$335,000	$299	61
236 Koenig Rd	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,288 (+6%)	2mo	$211,000	$164	60
100 Calvin Ct S	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+2%)	1mo	$337,000	$274	58
1257 Brighton Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+5%)	3mo	$225,000	$177	57
132 Overbrook Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,042 (-14%)	4mo	$261,000	$250	50
85 Halladay Ln	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,350 (+11%)	2mo	$255,000	$189	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,600
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $51,138
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$528 /mo · $6,331/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,743

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Koenig Rd Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.5	1481	$2,200	$1.49	1d	1	0.52mi
2776 Eggert Rd #2 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	972	$1,600	$1.65	23d	1	0.52mi
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	3d	1	0.61mi
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	16d	1	0.61mi
3948 Ridge Lea Rd Unit D Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	952	$1,850	$1.94	1d	1	0.89mi
182 Woodcrest Dr Amherst, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,300	$1.67	19d	1	1.29mi
1410 Deer Lakes Dr Amherst, NY	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,995	$1.53	3d	5	1.31mi
4765 N Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	43d	1	1.37mi
4585 Chestnut Ridge Rd #4 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1197	$1,600	$1.34	23d	1	1.39mi
103 Raintree Is Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	1d	35	1.41mi
285 Crestmount Ave Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,905	$2.63	1d	9	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2004-09-03
   soldstatus $108,900
4. 2000-01-21
   soldstatus $85,000
5. 1998-07-17
   soldstatus $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,331 · $528/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,331 · $528/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$6,331
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $441
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$106
• After-tax cash flow: $2,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+89.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $150,000 WNYREIS
• 2004-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $108,900 Public Records
• 2000-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,331 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.