2788A Dawes Rd · Mobile, AL 36695

$154,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1986 0.65 ac lot $130/sqft · 26% below area Est $209k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS HOME IS LOCATED IN A USDA ELIGIBLE AREA. BUYERS MAY QUALIFY FOR 0% DOWN WITH THIS LOAN TYPE! Welcome to this beautifully updated home in the heart of West Mobile. Situated on a spacious, private lot, this property has so much to offer. It has been renovated from top to bottom, featuring a new metal roof, updated flooring, and remodeled bathrooms. The kitchen boasts stunning, newly installed white cabinets, brand-new stainless steel appliances, and butcher block countertops. The home includes three spacious bedrooms and a private screened-in porch, along with a designated laundry room and half bathroom located at the back of the house. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity! Call

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot: less than 1 acre; No waterfront; One lot
• HOA & community: No transfer fees; No community features listed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking for three or more vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electric service: Alabama Power
• Home design: One-story property; Resale condition; Whole/full ownership; Zoning: Other — see remarks
• Construction: Asbestos construction materials; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area listed by seller (1,196 total building area units)
• Exterior features: Storage; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom: Other — see remarks
• Flooring: Other (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric cooling; Central electric heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living room; Additional rooms (see remarks); No fireplace; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $155k implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,253 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.88%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,418
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: -26.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2864 Guilder Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+4%)	5mo	$170,000	$137	77
8781 Dutchman Woods Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,358 (+14%)	5mo	$187,800	$138	58
8760 Dutch Valley Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+11%)	12mo	$200,000	$151	58
9171 Valley View Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+10%)	18mo	$200,000	$152	52
9358 Cottage Park Dr N	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	15mo	$210,000	$168	48
3026 Cottage Knoll Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+10%)	6mo	$195,000	$149	42
2862 Cottage Park Ct E	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	22mo	$152,000	$122	41
9309 Cottage Park Dr S	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	22mo	$209,000	$156	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,497
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $21,731
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36695

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $593/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2212 Summer Xing Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,800	$1.36	43d	1	0.83mi
9310 Scott Dairy Loop Rd S Unit 4 Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,450	$1.13	13d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $154,900 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-05-10
   price $154,900 898-char remark
3. 2026-05-10
   price $154,900 898-char remark
4. 2026-05-04
   price $164,900 898-char remark
5. 2026-05-04
   price $164,900 898-char remark
6. 2026-04-27
   listed $174,900 Active 898-char remark
7. 2026-04-27
   listed $174,900 Active 898-char remark
8. 2025-09-23
   soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $593 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $635 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$42/yr (+$4/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$593
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $3,670
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$881
• After-tax cash flow: $5,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 52,690
• Household income: $76,040
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1619.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 23% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.28%
• Current HPI: 193.1651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.41%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+219.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $154,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $154,900 BCAR
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $164,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $164,900 BCAR
• 2026-04-27 Listed $174,900 BCAR
• 2025-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $593 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.