448 State Hwy 334 · Johnstown, NY 12095

$185,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,804 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1890 0.63 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property has so much to offer for homesteading! Plenty of property to garden, babbling stream, two barns, natural spring and woods. This large home is 3,804 square feet and orginally was a farm store named ''G.B. Sammons, Farm Machinery and Silos''. 5 bedrooms, ample closet space, wide plank flooring and enclosed front porch. 2 bridges over the creek lead to the barns and gardens. Make an appointment today for your personal tour!

Key facts

• Lower roofs replaced
• New plumbing
• New well pump

Tags

• NEW ELECTRICAL ENTRANCE
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW WATER FILTRATION SYSTEM
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW WELL PUMP
• LOWER ROOFS REPLACED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank; Shared well
• Home design: Single-family residence; Living area reported
• Construction: Construction materials: Other; Metal and asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Barn; Creek on the property (Kecks Center Creek); Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms located on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the first floor, one on the second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating; Pellet stove; Wood stove
• Interior features: Total of 14 rooms; Basement with interior and exterior entry; Den; 3-seasons room; Great room; Family room; Office
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Johnstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#168 in NY, #2,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D-, amenities D-.
• Johnstown City School District (town): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #509 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnstown Junior-Senior High School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 675 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 34% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,558 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.51%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $90,369
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $274,453
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12095

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,486 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,818/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,693

Max offer price $156,027

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-112	+0% $-164	+5% $-216	+10% $-269
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-223	+0% $-164	+5% $-105	+10% $-47
Rate	-1.0pp $-71	-0.5pp $-117	base $-164	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $185,000 Active
3. 2025-10-08
   historical
4. 2025-09-30
   price $210,000
5. 2025-09-17
   price $225,000
6. 2025-08-15
   price $249,000
7. 2025-06-17
   listed $279,000 Active
8. 2023-01-25
   soldstatus $130,000
9. 2022-10-04
   soldstatus $130,000
10. 2022-09-28
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This property has so much to offer for homesteading! Plenty of property to garden, babbling stream, two barns, natural spring and woods. This large home is 3,804 square feet and orginally was a farm store named ''G.B. Sammons, Farm Machinery and Silos''. 5 bedrooms, ample closet space, wide plank flooring and enclosed front porch. 2 bridges over the creek lead to the barns and gardens. Make an appointment today for your personal tour!

11. 2022-06-30
    historical Contingent 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This property has so much to offer for homesteading! Plenty of property to garden, babbling stream, two barns, natural spring and woods. This large home is 3,804 square feet and orginally was a farm store named ''G.B. Sammons, Farm Machinery and Silos''. 5 bedrooms, ample closet space, wide plank flooring and enclosed front porch. 2 bridges over the creek lead to the barns and gardens. Make an appointment today for your personal tour!

12. 2022-06-20
    listed $159,000 Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This property has so much to offer for homesteading! Plenty of property to garden, babbling stream, two barns, natural spring and woods. This large home is 3,804 square feet and orginally was a farm store named ''G.B. Sammons, Farm Machinery and Silos''. 5 bedrooms, ample closet space, wide plank flooring and enclosed front porch. 2 bridges over the creek lead to the barns and gardens. Make an appointment today for your personal tour!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,818 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,972 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$154/yr (+$13/mo · 5.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,818
• − Insurance: −$1,592
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$5,180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,243
• After-tax cash flow: $-725/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnstown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615980
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,999
• Composite: 34.89/100
• National rank: #5082
• State rank: #509 of 590 in NY

Livability — Johnstown

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #2603

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B Cost of living A Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,013

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.82%
• Current HPI: 297.365
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+16.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $185,000 Global MLS
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $210,000 Global MLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $225,000 Global MLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $249,000 Global MLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed $279,000 Global MLS
• 2023-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-28 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Global MLS
• 2022-06-30 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2022-06-20 Listed $159,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,818 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.