Doheny Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34105

$389,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,547 sqft · SingleFamily · 446 Days on market

$200/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Loft
• Storage closet
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• KITCHEN WITH FAMILY ROOM
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM
• LOFT
• STORAGE CLOSET
• QUARTZ OR GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: Plan
• Financial info: List price provided (listing details available)
• HOA & community: Association fee: $200

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Electric service (heating); Central air (cooling)
• Home design: New construction plan (Doheny)
• Construction: Construction details not provided
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2547; Address listed in Naples, FL

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not provided
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction plan: Doheny); Plan listed as Active
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not provided

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $373k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $371k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $343k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 334 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,711/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-78,143
• Equity at exit: $58,149

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-107,305
• Equity at exit: $33,719

Cash invested: $109,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34105

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,711 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,850/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$779
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,857

Max offer price $373,268

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $19	+0% $-116	+5% $-250	+10% $-385
Rent	-10% $-409	-5% $-262	+0% $-116	+5% $31	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $-16	base $-116	+0.5pp $-217	+1.0pp $-319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,498
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5013 Florence Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,900	$1.29	25d	1	0.05mi
5039 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2341	$5,995	$2.56	25d	1	0.13mi
5065 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2557	$3,250	$1.27	23d	1	0.16mi
5077 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2256	$3,950	$1.75	25d	1	0.16mi
4919 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2350	$3,300	$1.40	25d	1	0.31mi
5089 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2028	$2,300	$1.13	15d	1	0.34mi
5166 Julienne Rd Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	3330	$3,600	$1.08	25d	1	0.35mi
5285 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,600	$1.15	25d	1	0.35mi
5293 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$3,400	$1.51	23d	1	0.37mi
5104 Salerno St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2341	$5,595	$2.39	25d	1	0.37mi
5243 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	4.0	3522	$3,800	$1.08	25d	1	0.38mi
4843 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2588	$3,300	$1.28	25d	1	0.39mi
4881 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2037	$2,800	$1.37	12d	1	0.40mi
5114 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2599	$3,195	$1.23	23d	1	0.41mi
5126 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.5	3522	$4,000	$1.14	23d	1	0.44mi
5286 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	3330	$2,995	$0.90	25d	1	0.45mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	23d	1	0.46mi
5414 Espada Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2799	$10,995	$3.93	23d	1	0.48mi
5322 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1918	$2,700	$1.41	15d	1	0.49mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	25d	1	0.50mi
5120 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2273	$3,500	$1.54	13d	1	0.51mi
5538 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$6,295	$2.80	23d	1	0.54mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct #5545 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2400	$9,000	$3.75	25d	1	0.55mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,500	$3.78	25d	1	0.55mi
5412 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,000	$3.56	23d	1	0.56mi
5226 Ferrari Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	3086	$3,400	$1.10	25d	1	0.56mi
5265 Messina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1929	$4,995	$2.59	25d	1	0.58mi
5428 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$7,895	$3.51	23d	1	0.60mi
5444 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$3,995	$1.78	23d	1	0.64mi
5169 Roma St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2874	$5,995	$2.09	25d	1	0.67mi
4546 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2104	$3,900	$1.85	25d	1	0.68mi
5674 Melbourne Ct Unit 7721 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$7,295	$3.46	13d	1	0.69mi
5680 Melbourne Ct #7521 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$2,650	$1.26	5d	1	0.71mi
5374 Ferris Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,350	$1.22	25d	1	0.72mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	23d	1	0.72mi
5515 Whistling Straights Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2419	$6,500	$2.69	23d	1	0.73mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	25d	1	0.76mi
5728 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$3,995	$1.89	13d	1	0.84mi
5722 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$3,995	$1.89	13d	1	0.85mi
5309 Beckton Rd Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,395	$1.17	25d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $389,990 Active 446 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,990 Active 443 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,990 Active 442 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,990 Active 441 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,990 Active 440 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,990 Active 435 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,990 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,990 Active 433 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $389,990 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,990 Active 427 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,990 Active 426 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,990 Active 425 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $389,990 Active 424 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$5,850
• − Insurance: −$3,774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,562
• − Management: −$3,562
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$7,809
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,874
• After-tax cash flow: $487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,441
• Household income: $92,214
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.65%
• Current HPI: 283.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B