14 Lucerne Dr · Elgin, SC 29045

$269,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,683 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2008 0.41 ac lot Est $273k · at est. ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A well maintained of home, in a quiet neighborhood, that is move in ready, with no HOA. This home features an open floor plan, with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. New flooring has been installed throughout the home. The spacious backyard has a wooden privacy fence with an above ground pool and a spacious deck. Call today to schedule a showing.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Wooden privacy fence
• New flooring

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW FLOORING
• WOODEN PRIVACY FENCE
• ABOVE GROUND POOL
• SPACIOUS DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($790/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.2% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#302 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kershaw 01 (rural): math 38% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #25 of 80 in SC (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blaney Elementary (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #199 of 597 statewide, top 35%, 760 students, 100% FRL); Leslie M. Stover Middle (math 26% / reading 46%, grade F, #101 of 229 statewide, top 44%, 697 students, 72% FRL); Lugoff-Elgin High (math 65% / reading 89%, grade A-, #28 of 196 statewide, top 16%, 1,744 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 49% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 491 units permitted in Kershaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kershaw County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,055 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,646
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Lucerne Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,683 (0%)	1mo	$273,000	$162	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-40,155
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-32,656
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29045

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,131 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,135/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,047

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $142	+0% $66	+5% $-10	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-18	+0% $66	+5% $150	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $134	base $66	+0.5pp $-4	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending 347-char remark

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   A well maintained of home, in a quiet neighborhood, that is move in ready, with no HOA. This home features an open floor plan, with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. New flooring has been installed throughout the home. The spacious backyard has a wooden privacy fence with an above ground pool and a spacious deck. Call today to schedule a showing.

2. 2026-04-19
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   A well maintained of home, in a quiet neighborhood, that is move in ready, with no HOA. This home features an open floor plan, with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. New flooring has been installed throughout the home. The spacious backyard has a wooden privacy fence with an above ground pool and a spacious deck. Call today to schedule a showing.

3. 2026-04-18
   listed $269,000 Active 347-char remark

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   A well maintained of home, in a quiet neighborhood, that is move in ready, with no HOA. This home features an open floor plan, with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. New flooring has been installed throughout the home. The spacious backyard has a wooden privacy fence with an above ground pool and a spacious deck. Call today to schedule a showing.

4. 2026-04-18
   listed $269,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   A well maintained of home, in a quiet neighborhood, that is move in ready, with no HOA. This home features an open floor plan, with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. New flooring has been installed throughout the home. The spacious backyard has a wooden privacy fence with an above ground pool and a spacious deck. Call today to schedule a showing.

5. 2007-06-05
   soldstatus $448,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,135 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,533 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$399/yr (+$33/mo · 35.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$1,135
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,045
• − Management: −$2,045
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$3,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$935
• After-tax cash flow: $1,725/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kershaw 01
• NCES district ID: 4502550
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,585
• Composite: 37.66/100
• National rank: #4371
• State rank: #25 of 80 in SC

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #23258

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kershaw County · 47,655 people
• City population: 31,372
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 31,372
• Household income: $87,366
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 204.0

Population outlook (Kershaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,683 people
• By 2030: 69,374 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 71,936 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 73,292 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 75,762 · +11.9%
• By 2100: 72,620 · +7.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kershaw

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.3% · R 63.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+23.1 2016: R+24.8 2012: R+18.6 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.60%
• Current HPI: 209.2469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — SBOR
• 2026-04-19 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $269,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $269,000 SBOR
• 2007-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $448,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,135 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.