2615 Thornberry Dr · Edgewood, MD 21040

$249,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1971 7,680 sqft lot $178/sqft · 14% below area Est $292k · 14% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a combination Estate sale and Pre-approved short sale. 4Bd/1.5ba Colonial (no basement), off street prking, covered deck off of kitchen PR requests property be on the market for 7 days before reviewing offer(s). Asset Manager and PR prefer using Gemini Title.

Key facts

• 7,680 sq ft lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area reported as 1,400 (source: Assessor); No basement / below-grade area reported as 0; Land and improvement assessed values available (financial details omitted)
• Financial info: Fee simple ownership
• HOA & community: Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; Below average condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Building winterized; Built year source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 5 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Natural gas fuel for heating and cooling; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.5% in Edgewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#118 in MD, #4,991 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, crime F.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,094 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.52%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,157
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -14.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2506 Hanson Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,404 (+0%)	15mo	$248,000	$177	68
2414A Willoughby Beach Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-3%)	11mo	$267,000	$197	63
2203 Willoughby Beach Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (+4%)	2mo	$318,000	$218	54
606 Harbour Oak Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,496 (+7%)	2mo	$300,000	$201	54
3048 Ebbtide Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	1,496 (+7%)	5mo	$354,900	$237	52
3011 Ebbtide Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,496 (+7%)	11mo	$340,000	$227	52
2029 Cherry Ct	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,449 (+4%)	8mo	$355,000	$245	50
609 Harbour Oak Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (+3%)	15mo	$349,900	$242	45
604 Pier Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-3%)	16mo	$315,000	$233	43
3040 Ebbtide Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,326 (-5%)	17mo	$331,000	$250	43
600 Harbour Oak Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,496 (+7%)	14mo	$326,500	$218	43
2216 Perry Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,593 (+14%)	12mo	$325,000	$204	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-19,181
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $24,262
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21040

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,331 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,960/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,997

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
619 Hartwood Ln Edgewood, MD	4.0	1.5	1716	$2,300	$1.34	43d	1	0.04mi
2816 Profitt Path Edgewood, MD	4.0	3.0	1660	$2,900	$1.75	43d	1	0.47mi
2120 Cedar Dr Apt F Edgewood, MD	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,295	$1.29	43d	1	0.61mi
313 Winterberry Dr Edgewood, MD	3.0	2.5	1798	$2,095	$1.17	19d	1	0.80mi
1046 Agate Dr Unit 1 Edgewood, MD	4.0	2.5	1440	$2,150	$1.49	17d	1	0.86mi
3184 Ebbtide Dr Edgewood, MD	3.0	3.0	1224	$2,600	$2.12	20d	1	0.90mi
3184 Ebbtide Dr Edgewood, MD	3.0	3.0	1224	$2,600	$2.12	43d	1	0.90mi
2828 Beckon Dr Edgewood, MD	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,300	$1.30	43d	1	0.96mi
2842 Beckon Dr Unit 1 Edgewood, MD	4.0	1.5	1296	$2,100	$1.62	43d	1	0.98mi
2033 Armstrong St Edgewood, MD	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,974	$1.97	1d	6	1.01mi
705 Bayberry Rd Edgewood, MD	3.0	1.5	1657	$2,600	$1.57	17d	1	1.10mi
8 Lasonia Ct Edgewood, MD	3.0	3.0	1468	$2,224	$1.51	14d	1	1.23mi
1857 Simons Ct Edgewood, MD	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,700	$1.37	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,900 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $259,900 Active 267-char remark
15. 2008-12-17
    historical
16. 2008-09-16
    listed
17. 2008-07-11
    historical
18. 2007-07-10
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,960 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,342 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$382/yr (+$32/mo · 19.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,960
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,238
• − Management: −$2,238
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$982
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$236
• After-tax cash flow: $3,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Edgewood

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #4991

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Edgewood, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 24,960
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 24,960
• Household income: $81,704
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 859.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 36% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.14%
• Current HPI: 254.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.92%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $259,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-12-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-09-16 Listed — MRIS
• 2008-07-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-07-10 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,960 · +28.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.