6345 Branch Hill Guinea Rd · Mulberry, OH 45140

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1919 0.34 ac lot $172/sqft · 42% below area Est $274k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute Cape Cod, loads of potential in Milford School District! Being sold As-Is. Ideal for investors, renovators, or first time buyers. On a nice, usable lot in a desirable location.

Key facts

• Usable lot
• Desirable location
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• USABLE LOT
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.8% in Mulberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#267 in OH, #4,295 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Milford Exempted Village (suburban): math 67% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #125 of 656 in OH (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mccormick Elementary School (math 75% / reading 76%, grade A, #257 of 1,584 statewide, top 17%, 631 students, 17% FRL); Milford Junior High School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A, #143 of 654 statewide, top 23%, 1,047 students, 19% FRL); Milford Sr High School (math 45% / reading 78%, grade B-, #231 of 781 statewide, top 30%, 1,850 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 996 units permitted in Clermont County in 2024 (210 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $160k implies a 357% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.65%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,811
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -41.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6621 Paxton Guinea Rd	0.36mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+9%)	14mo	$270,000	$268	52
869 Loveland Miamiville Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,026 (+11%)	22mo	$343,000	$334	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,387
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $50,504
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45140

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,775/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,334

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $526	-5% $480	+0% $435	+5% $390	+10% $344
Rent	-10% $286	-5% $361	+0% $435	+5% $509	+10% $584
Rate	-1.0pp $516	-0.5pp $476	base $435	+0.5pp $394	+1.0pp $351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $160,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    price $160,000 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Cute Cape Cod, loads of potential in Milford School District! Being sold As-Is. Ideal for investors, renovators, or first time buyers. On a nice, usable lot in a desirable location.

18. 2026-02-24
    listed $189,000 Active 181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (181 chars)

    Cute Cape Cod, loads of potential in Milford School District! Being sold As-Is. Ideal for investors, renovators, or first time buyers. On a nice, usable lot in a desirable location.

19. 2004-01-28
    soldstatus $35,000 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Lender owned sold AS IS no disclosures, no warranties, cute house with lots of updates, just needs some TLC and cosmetics

20. 2003-10-05
    listed $45,900 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Lender owned sold AS IS no disclosures, no warranties, cute house with lots of updates, just needs some TLC and cosmetics

21. 2003-08-08
    historical
22. 2003-06-02
    listed $53,900
23. 2003-03-25
    historical
24. 2002-10-26
    listed $64,900
25. 2001-12-14
    historical
26. 2001-10-12
    listed $79,900
27. 2000-02-03
    soldstatus $65,000
28. 1999-12-29
    soldstatus $65,000
29. 1998-07-01
    soldstatus $65,000
30. 1997-10-06
    listed $69,900
31. 1997-03-04
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,775 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,136 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$360/yr (+$30/mo · 20.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,775
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $2,802
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$672
• After-tax cash flow: $4,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milford Exempted Village
• NCES district ID: 3904550
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $69,538
• Composite: 61.63/100
• National rank: #746
• State rank: #125 of 656 in OH

Livability — Mulberry

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #267
• US rank: #4295

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clermont County · 173,169 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 57,211
• Household income: $114,827
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 928.0

Population outlook (Clermont County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 210,162 people
• By 2030: 212,463 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 212,504 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 205,957 · -2.0%
• By 2075: 182,728 · -13.1%
• By 2100: 143,986 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clermont

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.8) · D 31.7% · R 67.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -35.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.8 2020: R+36.6 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+35.5 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.61%
• Current HPI: 243.9481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.36%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+742.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $160,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $189,000 Cincy MLS
• 2004-01-28 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Cincy MLS
• 2003-10-05 Listed $45,900 Cincy MLS
• 2003-08-08 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2003-06-02 Listed $53,900 Cincy MLS
• 2003-03-25 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2002-10-26 Listed $64,900 Cincy MLS
• 2001-12-14 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2001-10-12 Listed $79,900 Cincy MLS
• 2000-02-03 Sold (MLS) $65,000 Cincy MLS
• 1999-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-06 Listed $69,900 Cincy MLS
• 1997-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,775 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.