14950 W Mountain View Blvd #6206 · Surprise, AZ 85374

$150,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Condo public records · 288 Days on market

Built 1998 $180/sqft · 36% below area Est $235k · 36% under $517/mo HOA · 27% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful, updated, and move-in ready condo at LaSolana. This unit is conveniently located near the elevator, and just a short walk from the clubhouse and pool. Step inside and you'll find newer laminate flooring throughout, newer appliances in Kitchen. The newer A/C will keep you cool, and the in-unit laundry and included appliances make for easy living. Enjoy all the amenities The Grand has to offer, plus LaSolana's own heated beach-entry pool, spa, clubhouse, theater, library, hair salon, and computer room. You'll also be close to shopping, restaurants, and medical facilities. This condo is perfect for full-time residents, snowbirds, or as an investment property.

Key facts

• Updated condo
• Newer appliances
• Short walk pool

Tags

• UPDATED CONDO
• NEAR ELEVATOR
• SHORT WALK CLUBHOUSE
• SHORT WALK POOL
• NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEWER APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($834/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 399 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $53k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $150k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.99%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,374
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -36.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-24,977
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-35,750
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$517
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,835

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,230	$2.91	5d	4	0.06mi
14950 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0–1.5	766	$2,388	$3.12	44d	3	0.06mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$1,550	$1.15	11d	9	0.42mi
14575 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$1,375	$1.02	5d	8	0.42mi
15032 W Jackpot Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	923	$1,600	$1.73	24d	1	0.70mi
17927 N Parkview Pl Surprise, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,258	$1.28	1d	8	0.70mi
14155 W Mountain View Blvd Surprise, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,243	$1.45	2d	12	0.80mi
14817 W Juneberry Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,800	$1.62	24d	1	0.95mi
16945 N Stadium Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,475	$1.49	3d	23	1.36mi
13635 W Utica Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1084	$2,750	$2.54	44d	1	1.37mi
14300 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	946	$1,948	$2.06	13d	2	1.37mi
14300 W Bell Rd Unit NA Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	938	$1,900	$2.03	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $517 · $6,204/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $150,000 Active 283 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 279 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 278 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 277 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $190,000 Active 274 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 273 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 272 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 271 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 270 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    price $190,000 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful, updated, and move-in ready condo at LaSolana. This unit is conveniently located near the elevator, and just a short walk from the clubhouse and pool. Step inside and you'll find newer laminate flooring throughout, newer appliances in Kitchen. The newer A/C will keep you cool, and the in-unit laundry and included appliances make for easy living. Enjoy all the amenities The Grand has to offer, plus LaSolana's own heated beach-entry pool, spa, clubhouse, theater, library, hair salon, and computer room. You'll also be close to shopping, restaurants, and medical facilities. This condo is perfect for full-time residents, snowbirds, or as an investment property.

15. 2026-02-09
    price $195,000 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful, updated, and move-in ready condo at LaSolana. This unit is conveniently located near the elevator, and just a short walk from the clubhouse and pool. Step inside and you'll find newer laminate flooring throughout, newer appliances in Kitchen. The newer A/C will keep you cool, and the in-unit laundry and included appliances make for easy living. Enjoy all the amenities The Grand has to offer, plus LaSolana's own heated beach-entry pool, spa, clubhouse, theater, library, hair salon, and computer room. You'll also be close to shopping, restaurants, and medical facilities. This condo is perfect for full-time residents, snowbirds, or as an investment property.

16. 2025-09-03
    listed $203,000 Active 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful, updated, and move-in ready condo at LaSolana. This unit is conveniently located near the elevator, and just a short walk from the clubhouse and pool. Step inside and you'll find newer laminate flooring throughout, newer appliances in Kitchen. The newer A/C will keep you cool, and the in-unit laundry and included appliances make for easy living. Enjoy all the amenities The Grand has to offer, plus LaSolana's own heated beach-entry pool, spa, clubhouse, theater, library, hair salon, and computer room. You'll also be close to shopping, restaurants, and medical facilities. This condo is perfect for full-time residents, snowbirds, or as an investment property.

17. 2015-02-13
    soldstatus $80,000
18. 2013-01-02
    historical
19. 2012-09-17
    listed $89,900 Active
20. 2011-05-02
    historical
21. 2010-07-08
    listed $94,900 Active
22. 2010-07-02
    historical
23. 2009-10-30
    listed $99,900 Active
24. 2004-12-15
    soldstatus $88,800
25. 2004-11-17
    historical
26. 2004-11-17
    listed $88,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,005 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,005 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − HOA: −$6,204
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$321
• After-tax cash flow: $1,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+114.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $190,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $203,000 ARMLS
• 2015-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2013-01-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2012-09-17 Listed $89,900 ARMLS
• 2011-05-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-07-08 Listed $94,900 ARMLS
• 2010-07-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-10-30 Listed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2004-12-15 Sold (MLS) $88,800 ARMLS
• 2004-11-17 Listed $88,800 ARMLS
• 2004-11-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,005 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.