10541 SE 127th Ln · Ocklawaha, FL 34420

$109,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1988 0.44 ac lot $139/sqft · 16% above area Est $94k · 16% over ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 10541 SE 127th Ln Belleview Fl. Located minutes away from the Villages, Big Lake Weir and Carney Island State park. NO Lot rent or HOA. Inside, you'll find a spacious and functional layout featuring an open living, dining, and kitchen area with vinyl and title flooring throughout. To the right side the master bedroom features a bonus room that brings you to the backyard of the house. Step outside to your private oasis, featuring a refreshing pool with a recently installed deck, great for entertaining or enjoying peaceful Florida evenings. This cozy home is perfect for investors, first-time buyers, or those looking for a flip-and-fix opportunity. Scheduled your private showing today!

Key facts

• Refreshing pool
• Bonus room
• Private oasis

Tags

• PRIVATE OASIS
• REFRESHING POOL
• RECENTLY INSTALLED DECK
• BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 5.1% in Ocklawaha — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 357 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.07%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,000
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: 15.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $11,579
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $47,675
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34420

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,446 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $787/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $864

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11595 SE 129th Pl Ocklawaha, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,700	$1.61	21d	1	1.04mi
11709 SE 99th Ct Belleview, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,195	$1.66	13d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $109,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $109,000 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-01-18
    listed $109,000 Active 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Welcome to 10541 SE 127th Ln Belleview Fl. Located minutes away from the Villages, Big Lake Weir and Carney Island State park. NO Lot rent or HOA. Inside, you'll find a spacious and functional layout featuring an open living, dining, and kitchen area with vinyl and title flooring throughout. To the right side the master bedroom features a bonus room that brings you to the backyard of the house. Step outside to your private oasis, featuring a refreshing pool with a recently installed deck, great for entertaining or enjoying peaceful Florida evenings. This cozy home is perfect for investors, first-time buyers, or those looking for a flip-and-fix opportunity. Scheduled your private showing today!

13. 2025-10-14
    historical
14. 2025-08-11
    price $130,500
15. 2025-08-05
    price $148,500
16. 2025-05-15
    listed $149,500 Active
17. 2025-03-18
    historical
18. 2025-02-07
    status Active
19. 2025-02-05
    listed $130,000 Active
20. 2025-02-05
    historical
21. 2022-11-23
    historical
22. 2022-05-23
    listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $787 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $905 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$118/yr (+$10/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$787
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,388
• − Management: −$1,388
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $3,964
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$951
• After-tax cash flow: $4,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocklawaha

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,318
• Population (ZIP): 19,167

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.90%
• Current HPI: 247.3176
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-29.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-18 Listed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $130,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $148,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Listed $149,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-05 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-23 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $787 · +40.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.