566 NW Magnolia Cir · Crystal River, FL 34428

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1980 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the heart of Crystal River, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of tranquility and convenience. Situated on a quiet street yet just a short walk from the city's best bars, restaurants, and attractions, this property is an ideal choice for a vacation home or short term rental investment. This home boasts brand-new drywall, insulation, updated electrical, NEW WATER HEATER, new plumbing, new kitchen appliances, new bathroom vanities and completely renovated, providing a solid foundation for its next owner. With durable tile flooring throughout that remained unaffected by water, the hardest work has already been done—leaving only minimal finishes needed to make

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• New plumbing
• Brand new drywall

Tags

• BRAND NEW DRYWALL
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• NEW BATHROOM VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.31 acres (90 x 151); Zoned RW
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Water source: None specified (see additional water information)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces north; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as single-story
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Paved road access; Public boat ramp and river/gulf access within 1/2 mile

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Solid surface counters; Split bedroom floor plan; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-619/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.1% in Crystal River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,698/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $235k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.56%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $600,530
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1222 NW 5th Ter	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (-2%)	13mo	$591,000	$373	76
519 NW 7th Ave	0.24mi	3/3.0	1,461 (-9%)	1mo	$1,950,000	$1,335	69
536 NW 7th Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,794 (+11%)	6mo	$330,000	$184	67
2310 N Watersedge Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-7%)	9mo	$587,000	$391	51
10741 W Pine Bark Ln	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (-5%)	8mo	$450,000	$295	47
2236 N Watersedge Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,742 (+8%)	18mo	$510,000	$293	41
2161 N Slewfoot Path	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (-9%)	13mo	$395,000	$269	37
124 N Citrus Ave	0.62mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,468 (-9%)	24mo	$1,550,000	$1,056	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-49,963
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-47,111
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34428

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,698 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,447/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,763

Max offer price $279,882

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $30	+0% $-52	+5% $-133	+10% $-215
Rent	-10% $-265	-5% $-158	+0% $-52	+5% $55	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $22	base $-52	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
373 NW 14th Pl Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1422	$3,000	$2.11	22d	1	0.30mi
1950 NW 12th Ave Unit B Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	22d	1	1.11mi
1328 NE 5th Ave Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1946	$2,000	$1.03	22d	1	1.21mi
1004 SE 5th Ave Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.5	2114	$3,500	$1.66	22d	1	1.26mi
1701 NW 22nd St Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,100	$1.37	22d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $289,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,000 Active 147 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $289,000
16. 2026-03-16
    price $299,000
17. 2026-02-17
    price $315,000
18. 2026-01-03
    listed $325,000 Active
19. 2025-09-24
    historical
20. 2025-08-22
    price $280,000
21. 2025-06-30
    price $265,000
22. 2025-05-27
    price $275,000
23. 2025-04-22
    price $300,000
24. 2025-04-11
    price $307,000
25. 2025-03-24
    listed $315,000 Active
26. 2024-08-06
    historical
27. 2024-07-12
    price $399,000
28. 2024-07-12
    price $399,000
29. 2024-06-15
    price $479,900
30. 2024-06-14
    price $479,900
31. 2024-04-26
    price $484,900
32. 2024-04-26
    price $484,900
33. 2024-03-30
    listed $499,900 Active
34. 2021-06-07
    soldstatus $235,000
35. 2020-01-22
    soldstatus $201,000
36. 2018-01-03
    soldstatus $200,000
37. 2014-02-12
    soldstatus $92,000
38. 2014-02-05
    soldstatus $92,000
39. 2013-12-03
    listed $97,500
40. 2002-10-17
    soldstatus $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,447 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,399 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$952/yr (+$79/mo · 65.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$1,447
• − Insurance: −$6,564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,590
• − Management: −$2,590
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$5,410
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,298
• After-tax cash flow: $679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal River

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal River, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,163
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,163
• Household income: $50,779
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 317.7637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+106.4% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Listed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $307,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-24 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $399,000 RACC
• 2024-06-15 Price Changed $479,900 RACC
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $479,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-26 Price Changed $484,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-26 Price Changed $484,900 RACC
• 2024-03-30 Listed $499,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $201,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-05 Sold (MLS) $92,000 RACC
• 2013-12-03 Listed $97,500 RACC
• 2002-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,447 · -73.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.