204 Brewster Ave · Florence, TX 76527

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1935 0.28 ac lot $120/sqft · 15% below area Est $219k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 1935 this home was originally built as a cheese factory. The owner soon found that it would not suit their business needs and built it as you see now. It is interesting that the property is once again a commercial location in the City of Florence. This home offers the charm of a 1935 rock cottage with red rock and petrified decorating the exterior. The home is a three bedroom home with a separate dining area, office, large living area, and small laundry just outside the back door. Adding to the charm are the covered patios on both the south side and in the backyard. The lot is large and located on a corner offering a lot of potential for the addition of a carport or garage.

Key facts

• Cheese factory
• Red rock details
• Stone home

Tags

• STONE HOME
• CHEESE FACTORY
• COMMERCIAL DISTRICT
• RED ROCK DETAILS
• PETRIFIED STONE DETAILS
• COTTAGE STYLE APPEARANCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces east; Resale property
• Construction: Stone construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed front porch with deck; Chain-link fencing; Back yard; Corner lot; City lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Cedar closet(s); Ceiling fan(s); Laminate counters; Main level primary; Aluminum-framed windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $443 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 1.3% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#175 in TX, #4,622 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Florence ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #542 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.26%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,631
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -8.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
401 S Love Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+4%)	1mo	$195,000	$122	86
303 Brewster Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,513 (-2%)	6mo	$221,000	$146	84
103 W Tomlinson St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,545 (+0%)	2mo	$370,000	$239	71
103 Lackey	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-6%)	2mo	$229,900	$159	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,676
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $35,248
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76527

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,955/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,743

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $548	-5% $495	+0% $443	+5% $391	+10% $338
Rent	-10% $261	-5% $352	+0% $443	+5% $534	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $536	-0.5pp $490	base $443	+0.5pp $395	+1.0pp $346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on marketlisting id $185,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-02-10
   price $199,000 691-char remark
8. 2026-01-29
   price $210,000 691-char remark
9. 2026-01-18
   price $219,950 691-char remark
10. 2025-12-19
    listed $235,000 Active 691-char remark
11. 2021-07-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,955 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,955 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,955
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,211
• − Management: −$2,211
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $2,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$622
• After-tax cash flow: $4,692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819320
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,324
• Composite: 28.91/100
• National rank: #6637
• State rank: #542 of 826 in TX

Livability — Florence

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #4622

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, TX
• City population: 4,686
• Population (ZIP): 4,686

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.27%
• Current HPI: 258.0594
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,955 · -11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.