7318 Pine Woods Rd · Three Mile Bay, NY 13693

$397,400

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,147 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 2020 1.97 ac lot $126/sqft · 37% below area Est $508k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into a unique blend of historic charm and modern comfort with this beautifully converted 1835 barn, now a stunning 3-bedroom, 2½-bath Barndominium showcasing timeless post-and-beam construction. Nestled on 1.97 peaceful acres in the quiet countryside of Point Peninsula within the Town of Lyme, this property offers the perfect retreat from the hustle of everyday life. Thoughtfully renovated and completed in 2020, the home features an impressive 2½-story layout that combines rustic character with modern conveniences. The open and spacious design provides plenty of room for relaxing, entertaining, or hosting guests while still offering private spaces throughout the home. Additionally, the outside entertaining space includes a 2nd story covered porch that spans the entire width of the home with breathtaking views of Lake Ontario. Currently operating as a 5-star short-term rental, this property presents an excellent turnkey investment opportunity or the perfect personal getaway. Guests and owners alike appreciate the warmth and comfort of in-floor heating, ensuring cozy winters while enjoying the expansive interior spaces. Adding even more value, the home is being offered fully furnished, including all appliances—making it ready for immediate enjoyment or continued success as a vacation rental. Whether you're looking for a peaceful country home, weekend retreat, or income-producing property, this one-of-a-kind converted barn delivers charm, comfort, and opportunity in a truly beautiful setting.

Key facts

• In-floor heating
• Fully furnished
• 1.97 acre lot

Tags

• POST-AND-BEAM CONSTRUCTION
• 2ND STORY COVERED PORCH
• IN-FLOOR HEATING
• FULLY FURNISHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $397k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (69.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (64.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (69.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,088 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Lyme Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #408 of 755 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($362k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $397k implies a 695% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $122,922 (69.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 69% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.65%
• DSCR: 0.21
• GRM: 23.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $508,101
• List price: $397,400
• Delta: -21.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $112,216
• Equity at exit: $358,009

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $412,500
• Equity at exit: $772,061

Cash invested: $111,272 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13693

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 23.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,424 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,084
• Tax from tax record: −$512 /mo · $6,146/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-1,637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,496

Max offer price $122,922

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,412	-5% $-1,524	+0% $-1,637	+5% $-1,749	+10% $-1,862
Rent	-10% $-1,749	-5% $-1,693	+0% $-1,637	+5% $-1,581	+10% $-1,524
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,437	-0.5pp $-1,536	base $-1,637	+0.5pp $-1,740	+1.0pp $-1,845

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,350
• Closing costs: $11,922
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $397,400 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $397,400 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $397,400 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $397,400 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $397,400 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $397,400 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $397,400 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $397,400 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $397,400 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $397,400 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $397,400 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $397,400 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $397,400 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $397,400 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $397,400 1539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1539 chars)

    Step into a unique blend of historic charm and modern comfort with this beautifully converted 1835 barn, now a stunning 3-bedroom, 2½-bath Barndominium showcasing timeless post-and-beam construction. Nestled on 1.97 peaceful acres in the quiet countryside of Point Peninsula within the Town of Lyme, this property offers the perfect retreat from the hustle of everyday life. Thoughtfully renovated and completed in 2020, the home features an impressive 2½-story layout that combines rustic character with modern conveniences. The open and spacious design provides plenty of room for relaxing, entertaining, or hosting guests while still offering private spaces throughout the home. Additionally, the outside entertaining space includes a 2nd story covered porch that spans the entire width of the home with breathtaking views of Lake Ontario. Currently operating as a 5-star short-term rental, this property presents an excellent turnkey investment opportunity or the perfect personal getaway. Guests and owners alike appreciate the warmth and comfort of in-floor heating, ensuring cozy winters while enjoying the expansive interior spaces. Adding even more value, the home is being offered fully furnished, including all appliances—making it ready for immediate enjoyment or continued success as a vacation rental. Whether you're looking for a peaceful country home, weekend retreat, or income-producing property, this one-of-a-kind converted barn delivers charm, comfort, and opportunity in a truly beautiful setting.

16. 2026-04-08
    price $399,900 1539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1539 chars)

    Step into a unique blend of historic charm and modern comfort with this beautifully converted 1835 barn, now a stunning 3-bedroom, 2½-bath Barndominium showcasing timeless post-and-beam construction. Nestled on 1.97 peaceful acres in the quiet countryside of Point Peninsula within the Town of Lyme, this property offers the perfect retreat from the hustle of everyday life. Thoughtfully renovated and completed in 2020, the home features an impressive 2½-story layout that combines rustic character with modern conveniences. The open and spacious design provides plenty of room for relaxing, entertaining, or hosting guests while still offering private spaces throughout the home. Additionally, the outside entertaining space includes a 2nd story covered porch that spans the entire width of the home with breathtaking views of Lake Ontario. Currently operating as a 5-star short-term rental, this property presents an excellent turnkey investment opportunity or the perfect personal getaway. Guests and owners alike appreciate the warmth and comfort of in-floor heating, ensuring cozy winters while enjoying the expansive interior spaces. Adding even more value, the home is being offered fully furnished, including all appliances—making it ready for immediate enjoyment or continued success as a vacation rental. Whether you're looking for a peaceful country home, weekend retreat, or income-producing property, this one-of-a-kind converted barn delivers charm, comfort, and opportunity in a truly beautiful setting.

17. 2026-03-18
    listed $425,000 Active 1539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1539 chars)

    Step into a unique blend of historic charm and modern comfort with this beautifully converted 1835 barn, now a stunning 3-bedroom, 2½-bath Barndominium showcasing timeless post-and-beam construction. Nestled on 1.97 peaceful acres in the quiet countryside of Point Peninsula within the Town of Lyme, this property offers the perfect retreat from the hustle of everyday life. Thoughtfully renovated and completed in 2020, the home features an impressive 2½-story layout that combines rustic character with modern conveniences. The open and spacious design provides plenty of room for relaxing, entertaining, or hosting guests while still offering private spaces throughout the home. Additionally, the outside entertaining space includes a 2nd story covered porch that spans the entire width of the home with breathtaking views of Lake Ontario. Currently operating as a 5-star short-term rental, this property presents an excellent turnkey investment opportunity or the perfect personal getaway. Guests and owners alike appreciate the warmth and comfort of in-floor heating, ensuring cozy winters while enjoying the expansive interior spaces. Adding even more value, the home is being offered fully furnished, including all appliances—making it ready for immediate enjoyment or continued success as a vacation rental. Whether you're looking for a peaceful country home, weekend retreat, or income-producing property, this one-of-a-kind converted barn delivers charm, comfort, and opportunity in a truly beautiful setting.

18. 2025-03-17
    historical
19. 2024-11-22
    listed $299,900 Active
20. 2021-06-01
    historical
21. 2021-03-27
    listed $234,000
22. 2020-05-18
    soldstatus $50,000
23. 2020-05-15
    soldstatus $50,000
24. 2020-01-18
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,146 · $512/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,431 · $536/mo
• Expected delta: +$285/yr (+$24/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,261
• − Property taxes: −$6,146
• − Insurance: −$1,987
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − Depreciation: −$11,561
• Taxable loss: −$27,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,624
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyme Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617880
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,713
• Composite: 46.85/100
• National rank: #5197
• State rank: #408 of 755 in NY

Livability — Three Mile Bay

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1088
• US rank: #22017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 315

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.76%
• Current HPI: 464.1711
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+563.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $397,400 CNYIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $399,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $425,000 CNYIS
• 2025-03-17 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-11-22 Listed $299,900 CNYIS
• 2021-06-01 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2021-03-27 Listed $234,000 CNYIS
• 2020-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-15 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CNYIS
• 2020-01-18 Listed $59,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+34.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,146 · +21.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.