Dawson Plan · Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

$398,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,182 sqft · SingleFamily · 194 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Dawson home plan, a thoughtfully designed one-story residence that embodies modern living and comfort. The heart of this home is an open-concept family room that effortlessly merges with the dining area and kitchen, creating a welcoming space for gatherings and everyday living. The kitchen features a spacious center island, perfect for meal preparation and casual dining at the breakfast bar. Retreat to the primary bedroom, a serene sanctuary complete with an en-suite bathroom boasting a large walk-in shower, offering a spa-like experience. Three additional bedrooms and two full baths provide ample space for family and guests, ensuring comfort for all. The generously sized utility room enhances functionality and storage options, while the expansive covered patio invites outdoor living and entertaining. Experience effortless living in the Dawson home plan, where every detail is designed for modern life.

Key facts

• En-suite bathroom
• Large walk-in shower
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• SPACIOUS CENTER ISLAND
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN SHOWER
• GENEROUSLY SIZED UTILITY ROOM
• EXPANSIVE COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $398,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $440,030.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $398k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-597 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Mont Belvieu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#438 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1018 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,398 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.81%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $440,030
• List price: $398,500
• Delta: -9.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9918 Red Knot St	0.00mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,182 (0%)	4mo	$434,400	$199	91
14811 Mission Ave	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,147 (-2%)	6mo	$349,990	$163	87
14823 Mission Ave	0.12mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,182 (0%)	5mo	$441,061	$202	86
15027 Mission Ave	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,052 (-6%)	3mo	$463,000	$226	79
14827 Mission Ave	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,316 (+6%)	4mo	$444,424	$192	79
9910 Red Knot	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,079 (-5%)	5mo	$432,430	$208	79
14807 Mission Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (-5%)	6mo	$349,990	$168	75
14806 Buffalo Head St	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,399 (+10%)	4mo	$454,990	$190	73
7111 Hillside Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,216 (+2%)	4mo	$389,000	$176	66
15023 Gulfstream Park Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,047 (-6%)	4mo	$400,000	$195	64
15202 Lakewood Ave	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,430 (+11%)	0mo	$440,000	$181	58
14910 Lake Shore Ave	0.38mi	4/3.5	2,504 (+15%)	5mo	$450,000	$180	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-107,949
• Equity at exit: $65,610

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-137,314
• Equity at exit: $38,046

Cash invested: $123,209 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 39 active · 29 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.3 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $444,990 ($197/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1018
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,308
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$550 /mo · $6,600/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,849

Max offer price $353,686

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-293	-5% $-445	+0% $-597	+5% $-749	+10% $-901
Rent	-10% $-841	-5% $-719	+0% $-597	+5% $-474	+10% $-352
Rate	-1.0pp $-375	-0.5pp $-485	base $-597	+0.5pp $-711	+1.0pp $-827

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,008
• Closing costs: $13,201
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9922 Red Knot ST Mont Belvieu, TX	5.0	3.0	2563	$3,399	$1.33	119d	1	0.09mi
14915 Lake Shore Ave Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	4.0	2569	$2,321	$0.90	39d	1	0.37mi
7307 Hillside Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,756	$1.20	67d	1	0.52mi
15122 Arlington Park Ave Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	3.5	2841	$2,676	$0.94	0d	1	0.55mi
7514 Oakmont Ave Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,611	$1.35	70d	1	0.66mi
15334 Lake Front Dr Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	2.0	2047	$3,000	$1.47	0d	1	0.74mi
15551 Blue Lake Dr Mont Belvieu, TX	4.0	3.0	2731	$3,000	$1.10	26d	1	1.02mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	54d	1	1.46mi
15218 Arnold Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	38d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $398,500 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $398,500 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $398,500 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $398,500 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $398,500 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $398,500 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $398,500 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $398,500 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $398,500 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $398,500 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $398,500 Active 184 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $398,500 Active 183 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $398,500 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $398,500 Active 181 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $398,500 Active 175 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $398,500 Active 174 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $398,500 Active 172 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $397,500 Active 170 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $397,500 Active 168 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $397,500 Active 167 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $397,500 Active 166 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $397,500 Active 164 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $397,500 Active 163 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $397,500 Active 162 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $397,500 Active 161 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $397,500 Active 160 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $397,500 Active 159 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $397,500 Active 158 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $397,500 Active 157 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $397,500 Active 156 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $397,500 Active 155 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $397,500 Active 154 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $397,500 Active 153 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $397,500 Active 152 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $397,500 Active 151 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $397,500 Active 150 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $397,500 Active 149 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $397,500 Active 148 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $397,500 Active 147 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $397,500 Active 145 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $397,500 Active 144 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $397,500 Active 143 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $397,500 Active 142 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $397,500 Active 139 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $397,500 Active 137 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $397,500 Active 136 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $397,500 Active 134 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $397,500 Active 132 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $397,500 Active 131 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $397,500 Active 130 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,649
• − Property taxes: −$6,600
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,970
• − Management: −$2,970
• − Depreciation: −$12,801
• Taxable loss: −$15,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,615
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,910–$32,730 screening

The home presents as move-in ready with good exterior condition and fresh curb appeal. Minor maintenance and cosmetic updates could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping increases curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Mont Belvieu

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mont Belvieu, TX
• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $396,250 Zillow