14490 W Peaceful Pl · Big Lake, AK 99652

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,135 sqft · SingleFamily · 303 Days on market

Built 1996 Poor condition 0.80 ac lot $149/sqft · 52% below area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Homesteaders Dream! This .8 acre property is beautifully orchestrated with many functional spaces making it a great place to start. The house is a 2 bedroom,1 bathroom chalet design with cathedral ceilings and a woodstove. The property features a complete perimeter fence, 3 separate paddocks, a 1,000 sq ft barn, hay loft, 2 stalls with third storage area or milking station, an enclosed feed storage, and a predator-free fully enclosed chicken coop. How about a horse? Goats? What is a homestead without a garden? This parcel not only has a greenhouse area, but 4 raised garden beds constructed with weathered wood as well. Quiet? There is no through traffic to disturb your peace and quiet. After a hard day's work, how about fishing for Rainbow Trout in nearby Beaver Lakes? Simple country living is possible on this place located in the picturesque Matanuska Susitna Valley, so call today and begin your dream.

Key facts

• Hay loft
• Barn
• Perimeter fence

Tags

• PERIMETER FENCE
• SEPARATE PADDOCKS
• BARN
• HAY LOFT
• CHICKEN COOP
• GREENHOUSE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.8% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#99 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Lake Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #93 of 156 statewide, top 66%, 382 students, 74% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.44%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,549
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -51.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14732 W Peaceful Pl	0.13mi	2/1.0	964 (-15%)	8mo	$215,000	$223	63
1173 N Big B Dr	1.02mi	2/1.0	1,128 (-1%)	4mo	$299,000	$265	61
934 S Lazy Lake Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,224 (+8%)	14mo	$325,000	$266	51
1598 N Beaver Lake Rd	0.98mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-11%)	0mo	$259,000	$257	46
890 S Malemute Dr	1.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,150 (+1%)	14mo	$356,250	$310	42
1559 N Beaver Lake Rd	0.93mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (+2%)	20mo	$200,000	$174	40
582 N Beaver Lake Rd	0.85mi	2/1.0	982 (-14%)	4mo	$285,000	$290	39
686 N Lilly Dr	0.89mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-12%)	0mo	$316,000	$316	36
15151 W Crest Pl	0.94mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (+10%)	5mo	$395,000	$317	36
834 N Lilly Dr	0.94mi	2/2.0	1,036 (-9%)	18mo	$315,000	$304	31
15712 W Rochella Pl	1.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,247 (+10%)	11mo	$325,000	$261	30
663 N knob hill Ct	0.76mi	2/1.5	1,296 (+14%)	11mo	$499,000	$385	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $31,535
• Equity at exit: $75,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $96,696
• Equity at exit: $117,109

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 1.5 mo (67%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,999 ($304/sqft)
• Median days on market: 6 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +2.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 99652

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $292	-5% $233	+0% $175	+5% $117	+10% $58
Rent	-10% $41	-5% $108	+0% $175	+5% $242	+10% $309
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $218	base $175	+0.5pp $131	+1.0pp $87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1987 S Lodge Dr Unit 1 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	72d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 302 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $169,000 Active 301 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $169,000 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $169,000 Active 299 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $169,000 Active 298 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $169,000 Active 295 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $169,000 Active 293 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $169,000 Active 291 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $169,000 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $169,000 Active 288 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $169,000 Active 287 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $169,000 Active 286 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $169,000 Active 285 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $169,000 Active 282 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $169,000 Active 280 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $169,000 Active 279 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $169,000 Active 278 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $169,000 Active 277 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $169,000 Active 276 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $169,000 Active 275 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $169,000 Active 274 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $169,000 Active 273 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 272 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 271 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $169,000 Active 270 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $169,000 Active 269 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 268 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 267 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 266 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 265 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $169,000 Active 264 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $169,000 Active 263 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $169,000 Active 262 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $169,000 Active 261 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $169,000 Active 260 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $169,000 Active 258 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $169,000 Active 256 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $169,000 Active 255 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $169,000 Active 252 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $169,000 Active 251 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $169,000 Active 250 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $169,000 Active 249 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $169,000 Active 247 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $169,000 Active 246 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $169,000 Active 244 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $169,000 Active 243 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 242 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 241 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 237 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$150
• After-tax cash flow: $2,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $56,750–$102,150 screening

This property requires extensive renovations to bring it up to modern standards and improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely worn and outdated
• Major bathroom vanity — severely worn and outdated
• Major roof — visible wear and tear
• Major exterior siding — weathered and exposed
• Major flooring — bare subflooring
• Major interior walls — bare and peeling paint
• Major windows — broken glass
• Major HVAC system — visible rust and wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality ↑
• Resale new bathroom vanity and fixtures — modernizes the bathroom and improves functionality ↑
• Resale new roof — enhances curb appeal and protects the home ↑
• Resale new exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and protects the home ↑
• Resale new flooring — enhances the living space and improves functionality ↑
• Resale new interior walls and paint — enhances the living space and improves functionality ↑
• Resale new windows — enhances curb appeal and protects the home ↑
• Resale new HVAC system — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Big Lake Elementary F AK #93/156 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Houston Middle School High Houston High School F AK #41/61 Nat'l #12,196/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

D Composite livability gradescore 58/100

Livability — Big Lake

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #20971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Lake, AK
• County: Matanuska-Susitna · 126,730 people
• City population: 4,066
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 4,066
• Household income: $71,310
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $169,000 AKMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $180,000 AKMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $200,000 AKMLS