127 County Road 4109 · Pineland, TX 75930

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 309 Days on market

Built 2012 0.45 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fish Camp Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn! Escape to your own private getaway just half a mile from the Ayish Bayou boat ramp on Lake Sam Rayburn! This well-maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home offers spacious country living with an open-concept kitchen and living room. The heart of the home includes a functional island work center, abundant cabinet space, and plenty of room for entertaining. Relax and unwind on the large covered front porch—perfect for enjoying quiet mornings or evening sunsets. The property also includes a 6-car carport/equipment shed, a large RV shed, and a separate storage building, making it ideal for anyone needing space for hobbies, tools, or travel gear. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy peaceful living with plenty of room to grow!

Key facts

• Large rv shed
• Open-concept kitchen
• 6-car carport

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• 6-CAR CARPORT
• LARGE RV SHED
• SEPARATE STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#966 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Broaddus ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #400 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in San Augustine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• San Augustine County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 309 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 91% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 309 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.23%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $39,839
• Equity at exit: $54,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $105,578
• Equity at exit: $88,726

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75930

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,027/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $897

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 309 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 308 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 307 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 306 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 304 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 303 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $110,000 Active 300 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 299 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 298 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 297 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 294 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 293 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 292 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 291 DOM
15. 2025-10-23
    price $120,000 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Fish Camp Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn! Escape to your own private getaway just half a mile from the Ayish Bayou boat ramp on Lake Sam Rayburn! This well-maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home offers spacious country living with an open-concept kitchen and living room. The heart of the home includes a functional island work center, abundant cabinet space, and plenty of room for entertaining. Relax and unwind on the large covered front porch—perfect for enjoying quiet mornings or evening sunsets. The property also includes a 6-car carport/equipment shed, a large RV shed, and a separate storage building, making it ideal for anyone needing space for hobbies, tools, or travel gear. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy peaceful living with plenty of room to grow!

16. 2025-10-19
    price $120,000 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Fish Camp Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn! Escape to your own private getaway just half a mile from the Ayish Bayou boat ramp on Lake Sam Rayburn! This well-maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home offers spacious country living with an open-concept kitchen and living room. The heart of the home includes a functional island work center, abundant cabinet space, and plenty of room for entertaining. Relax and unwind on the large covered front porch—perfect for enjoying quiet mornings or evening sunsets. The property also includes a 6-car carport/equipment shed, a large RV shed, and a separate storage building, making it ideal for anyone needing space for hobbies, tools, or travel gear. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy peaceful living with plenty of room to grow!

17. 2025-09-23
    listed $120,000 Active
18. 2025-08-13
    listed $130,000 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Fish Camp Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn! Escape to your own private getaway just half a mile from the Ayish Bayou boat ramp on Lake Sam Rayburn! This well-maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home offers spacious country living with an open-concept kitchen and living room. The heart of the home includes a functional island work center, abundant cabinet space, and plenty of room for entertaining. Relax and unwind on the large covered front porch—perfect for enjoying quiet mornings or evening sunsets. The property also includes a 6-car carport/equipment shed, a large RV shed, and a separate storage building, making it ideal for anyone needing space for hobbies, tools, or travel gear. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy peaceful living with plenty of room to grow!

19. 2025-08-13
    listed $130,000 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Fish Camp Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn! Escape to your own private getaway just half a mile from the Ayish Bayou boat ramp on Lake Sam Rayburn! This well-maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home offers spacious country living with an open-concept kitchen and living room. The heart of the home includes a functional island work center, abundant cabinet space, and plenty of room for entertaining. Relax and unwind on the large covered front porch—perfect for enjoying quiet mornings or evening sunsets. The property also includes a 6-car carport/equipment shed, a large RV shed, and a separate storage building, making it ideal for anyone needing space for hobbies, tools, or travel gear. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy peaceful living with plenty of room to grow!

20. 2025-08-13
    historical

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Fish Camp Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn! Escape to your own private getaway just half a mile from the Ayish Bayou boat ramp on Lake Sam Rayburn! This well-maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home offers spacious country living with an open-concept kitchen and living room. The heart of the home includes a functional island work center, abundant cabinet space, and plenty of room for entertaining. Relax and unwind on the large covered front porch—perfect for enjoying quiet mornings or evening sunsets. The property also includes a 6-car carport/equipment shed, a large RV shed, and a separate storage building, making it ideal for anyone needing space for hobbies, tools, or travel gear. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy peaceful living with plenty of room to grow!

21. 2025-08-13
    listed $120,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Fish Camp Retreat Near Lake Sam Rayburn! Escape to your own private getaway just half a mile from the Ayish Bayou boat ramp on Lake Sam Rayburn! This well-maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath manufactured home offers spacious country living with an open-concept kitchen and living room. The heart of the home includes a functional island work center, abundant cabinet space, and plenty of room for entertaining. Relax and unwind on the large covered front porch—perfect for enjoying quiet mornings or evening sunsets. The property also includes a 6-car carport/equipment shed, a large RV shed, and a separate storage building, making it ideal for anyone needing space for hobbies, tools, or travel gear. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy peaceful living with plenty of room to grow!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$986/yr (+$82/mo · 96.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 91% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,027
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,273
• − Management: −$1,273
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $2,433
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$584
• After-tax cash flow: $3,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Broaddus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811430
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $33,033
• Composite: 34.58/100
• National rank: #5166
• State rank: #400 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pineland

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #966
• US rank: #17147

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,381

Population outlook (San Augustine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,544 people
• By 2030: 7,094 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 6,327 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 5,645 · -25.2%
• By 2075: 4,447 · -41.1%
• By 2100: 3,299 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Augustine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.3) · D 21.6% · R 77.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.0pp toward R · 2008: -27.3pp · 2024: -56.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.3 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+48.1 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+27.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.84%
• Current HPI: 80.4711
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $120,000 BBOR
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $120,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $130,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,027 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.