9550 Louis Phillip St · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,813 sqft lot $180/sqft · 6% below area Est $266k · 6% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained KB Home in Creekside Court! The inviting brick elevation opens to an airy, open-concept layout with tile flooring throughout the main living areas and a spacious great room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, 42” cabinetry, pendant lighting, and ample workspace. The private primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with extended dual vanities and an oversized shower. Enjoy evenings on the back patio with no rear neighbors for added privacy. Additional highlights include faux wood blinds throughout and a water softener system. Residents enjoy community amenities including a park, playground, and open green spaces. Conveniently located near Hwy 249, Grand Parkway, and I-45 with easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment in Conroe, The Woodlands, Tomball, and Downtown Houston. Zoned to highly rated Magnolia ISD. Welcome HOME!

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Brick elevation
• Tile flooring

Tags

• BRICK ELEVATION
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• TILE FLOORING
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,028 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,136
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -6.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27638 Mesabe Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (0%)	12mo	$254,900	$184	80
25443 Lobelia Blossom Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-3%)	5mo	$268,950	$199	67
27608 Bello Bend Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,252 (-10%)	14mo	$239,000	$191	65
8911 Carraway Ln	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,376 (-1%)	10mo	$300,000	$218	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $114,236
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $338,843
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$546 /mo · $6,550/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,571

Max offer price $205,028

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-113	-5% $-183	+0% $-254	+5% $-325	+10% $-395
Rent	-10% $-432	-5% $-343	+0% $-254	+5% $-165	+10% $-76
Rate	-1.0pp $-128	-0.5pp $-190	base $-254	+0.5pp $-319	+1.0pp $-385

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	3d	1	0.30mi
9733 Grosbeak Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,798	$1.38	44d	1	0.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $249,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $255,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    listed $259,000 Active 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained KB Home in Creekside Court! The inviting brick elevation opens to an airy, open-concept layout with tile flooring throughout the main living areas and a spacious great room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, 42” cabinetry, pendant lighting, and ample workspace. The private primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with extended dual vanities and an oversized shower. Enjoy evenings on the back patio with no rear neighbors for added privacy. Additional highlights include faux wood blinds throughout and a water softener system. Residents enjoy community amenities including a park, playground, and open green spaces. Conveniently located near Hwy 249, Grand Parkway, and I-45 with easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment in Conroe, The Woodlands, Tomball, and Downtown Houston. Zoned to highly rated Magnolia ISD. Welcome HOME!

16. 2026-02-04
    historical
17. 2026-01-18
    price $255,000
18. 2025-12-28
    listed $259,000 Active
19. 2023-03-28
    status Pending
20. 2023-03-24
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2023-02-20
    listed $254,995 Active
22. 2023-02-20
    historical
23. 2023-02-16
    price $254,995
24. 2023-01-26
    price $257,101
25. 2023-01-25
    listed $256,995 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,550 · $546/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,550 · $546/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$6,550
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$7,240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,738
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained KB Home in Creekside Court is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace faux wood blinds with real blinds — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace faux wood blinds with real blinds — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-28 Listed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-02-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-20 Listed $254,995 HARMLS
• 2023-02-16 Price Changed $254,995 HARMLS
• 2023-01-26 Price Changed $257,101 HARMLS
• 2023-01-25 Listed $256,995 HARMLS

Property tax history

+55.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,550 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.