6019 Blue Paloma Ct · Memphis, FL 34221

$311,940

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $172/sqft · 29% below area Est $441k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This convenient single-story plan opens to an inviting dining room with shared access to the kitchen and family room, ideal for seamless modern living. Tucked behind the kitchen, three secondary bedrooms enjoy their own wing of the home, while the expansive owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner, a peaceful retreat.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Family room
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• FAMILY ROOM
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS
• OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-925/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.9% in Memphis — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1452 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $263,120 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $440,526
• List price: $311,940
• Delta: -29.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3415 70th Ct E	0.65mi	4/2.5	1,784 (-2%)	7mo	$395,000	$221	59
3209 77th Ct E	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (+3%)	11mo	$460,000	$245	53
3425 70th Gln E	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-9%)	2mo	$415,000	$251	47
6325 35th Avenue Cir E	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,952 (+7%)	3mo	$406,000	$208	47
6324 35th Avenue Cir E	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,693 (-7%)	13mo	$330,000	$195	44
3303 63rd St E	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,767 (-3%)	18mo	$355,000	$201	40
3212 70th Ct E	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-9%)	17mo	$425,000	$257	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-63,129
• Equity at exit: $46,511

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-90,934
• Equity at exit: $26,971

Cash invested: $87,343 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.7 mo (27%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $318,340 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +47.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1452
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,631 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,636
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$390 /mo · $4,679/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,729

Max offer price $300,784

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $31	+0% $-77	+5% $-185	+10% $-293
Rent	-10% $-285	-5% $-181	+0% $-77	+5% $27	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $2	base $-77	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,985
• Closing costs: $9,358
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6115 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	5.0	2.5	2217	$2,825	$1.27	32d	1	0.02mi
6045 Bird Key Pl Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,448	$2.48	17d	203	0.02mi
9940 Mahaffey DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$2,044	$1.85	73d	1	0.02mi
6010 33rd Dr E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$2,115	$1.64	52d	1	1.00mi
2789 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	73d	1	1.13mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,516	$1.62	70d	1	1.25mi
2305 50th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	1996	$2,545	$1.28	16d	1	1.26mi
2706 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1637	$2,400	$1.47	35d	1	1.28mi
3303 54th St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,000	$1.56	52d	1	1.31mi
7127 48th Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2110	$1,800	$0.85	47d	1	1.32mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	70d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $311,940 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $311,940 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $311,940 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $311,940 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $311,940 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $311,840 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $311,840 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $311,840 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $311,840 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $311,840 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $311,840 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $311,640 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 331-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $311,640 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,473
• − Property taxes: −$4,679
• − Insurance: −$1,560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,526
• − Management: −$2,526
• − Depreciation: −$9,075
• Taxable loss: −$6,264
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,503
• After-tax cash flow: $578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,085–$27,255 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Rental Install smart home devices — Smart home features can attract tech-savvy renters and increase rental rates. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B