1279 Vagabond Dr · Port Orange, FL 32127

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1999 5,000 sqft lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Enjoy easy Florida living in this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide manufactured home offering comfort, convenience, and coastal charm all in one. Featuring vaulted ceilings and an open family room, this home feels bright and inviting - perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located in desirable PORT ORANGE, you'll love being just minutes from the beach, fishing, top-rated schools, shopping & dining. If you are looking for a year-round residence or the perfect Florida retreat, this home offers incredible value in a perfect location. Don't miss your opportunity to own a piece of paradise in beautiful Florida.

Key facts

• Open family room
• Vaulted ceilings
• Top-rated schools

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• OPEN FAMILY ROOM
• MINUTES FROM THE BEACH
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS
• SHOPPING AND DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#131 in FL, #1,957 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D+, commute D+.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spruce Creek Elementary School (math 67% / reading 64%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 785 students, 51% FRL); Spruce Creek High School (math 37% / reading 61%, grade D, #193 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,569 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 418 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,165 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.33%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,431
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $35,489
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32127

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 418
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,185 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,497

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5820 Alstrum Dr Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,150	$1.53	23d	1	0.46mi
3960 Oak Trail Run #2101 Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.5	1263	$1,900	$1.50	23d	1	0.57mi
3960 Oak Trail Run Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.5	1258	$1,898	$1.51	19d	2	0.58mi
905 Fruitwood Pl Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1763	$2,350	$1.33	23d	1	0.66mi
5772 White Acres Ln Unit NA Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$3,200	$1.68	23d	1	0.90mi
747 Taylor Rd Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	2038	$2,900	$1.42	21d	1	0.98mi
5397 S Nova Rd Unit 1 Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1398	$2,350	$1.68	23d	1	1.00mi
4514 Alder Dr Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,100	$1.54	11d	1	1.16mi
5609 Victoria Gardens Blvd Port Orange, FL	2.0	1.0–1.5	1050	$1,600	$1.52	23d	7	1.27mi
175 Conrad St Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,950	$1.55	23d	1	1.30mi
745 Tumblebrook Dr Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1977	$2,100	$1.06	23d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-11-22
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-03
   listed $189,000 Active
3. 2023-08-14
   historical
4. 2023-06-09
   price $200,000
5. 2023-04-12
   listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,348 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,569 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$220/yr (+$18/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $3,647
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$875
• After-tax cash flow: $5,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port Orange

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #1957

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Orange, FL
• County: Volusia County · 556,871 people
• City population: 75,051
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,612
• Household income: $71,676
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 812.0

Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.71%
• Current HPI: 282.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.83%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-09 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-12 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,348 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.