209 Mclain St · Newville, AL 36353

$93,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,079 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1994

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile home located in Newville, AL. This is in Headland school area. 4 bedroom and 2 bath, with bonus room off of the master bedroom. Built in 1994 with 2079 sf. Chain link fenced back yard. Covered front deck.

Key facts

• Covered front deck
• Built 1994
• Listed 147 days

Tags

• CHAIN LINK FENCED BACK YARD
• COVERED FRONT DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#288 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Henry County (rural): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #55 of 129 in AL (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 71 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($646 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Henry County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.76%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $54,858
• Equity at exit: $60,682

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $140,525
• Equity at exit: $111,726

Cash invested: $26,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36353

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$490
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,144/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $791

Max offer price $93,500

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,375
• Closing costs: $2,805
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $93,500 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $93,500 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $93,500 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $93,500 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $93,500 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $93,500 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $93,500 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $93,500 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $93,500 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $93,500 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $93,500 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $93,500 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-01-22
    listed $95,000 Active 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Mobile home located in Newville, AL. This is in Headland school area. 4 bedroom and 2 bath, with bonus room off of the master bedroom. Built in 1994 with 2079 sf. Chain link fenced back yard. Covered front deck.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,144 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,144 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,144
• − Insurance: −$468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,256
• − Management: −$1,256
• − Depreciation: −$2,720
• Taxable income: $3,623
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$869
• After-tax cash flow: $4,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 0101740
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,502
• Composite: 27.78/100
• National rank: #6894
• State rank: #55 of 129 in AL

Livability — Newville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #288
• US rank: #18707

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 1,873

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,109 people
• By 2030: 16,928 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 16,376 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 15,778 · -7.8%
• By 2075: 14,491 · -15.3%
• By 2100: 12,673 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.8) · D 24.3% · R 75.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -29.7pp · 2024: -50.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.8 2020: R+43.0 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+29.4 2008: R+29.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.32%
• Current HPI: 212.945
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Listed $95,000 SAMLS