8963 Adams Cir · Cresson, TX 76035

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1983 Fair condition 0.26 ac lot $61/sqft · 39% below area Est $115k · 39% under ↓ 48% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.5

Listing remarks

Unrestricted property with space to work, store, and grow! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath doublewide sits on a quarter-acre lot in Cresson and offers flexibility that’s getting harder to find. Inside, the split-bedroom layout gives each bedroom its own full bath, making it ideal for roommates, rentals, or added privacy. The open living and kitchen area keeps things practical and functional, while a bonus room off the kitchen adds extra usable space for an office or hobby room. Out back is a large standalone shop with electricity and built-in storage — perfect for tools, equipment, projects, or a small business setup.

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Covered carport
• Bonus room

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• OPEN LIVING AND KITCHEN AREA
• BONUS ROOM
• LARGE STANDALONE SHOP
• COVERED CARPORT
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $674 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 4.7% in Cresson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#843 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Weatherford ISD (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #321 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ikard El (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 620 students, 73% FRL); Hall Middle (math 43% / reading 45%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 973 students, 47% FRL); Weatherford H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 2,525 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.26%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $114,535
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -38.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8963 Cartwright Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+2)	1,200 (+4%)	5mo	$145,000	$121	75
8989 Adams Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-8%)	20mo	$175,000	$166	61
8941 Adams Cir	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (-4%)	22mo	$60,000	$54	61
8966 Adams Cir	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-8%)	59mo	$159,000	$151	59
8767 Windmill Ct	0.14mi	2/2.0	820 (-29%)	26mo	$181,500	$221	48
8947 Adams Cir	0.08mi	2/1.0	888 (-23%)	36mo	$48,000	$54	48
8758 Windmill Ct	0.20mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,000 (-13%)	39mo	$89,000	$89	42
5800B Monroe Hwy	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+22%)	56mo	$849,900	$607	16
4901 Lanark Ct	1.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	840 (-27%)	19mo	$80,000	$95	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $35,021
• Equity at exit: $14,026

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.54×
• Total profit: $89,071
• Equity at exit: $12,399

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $145,000 ($116/sqft)
• Median days on market: 210 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -14.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76035

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,557 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,914/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $674

Break-even live

Break-even rent $704

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $714	-5% $694	+0% $674	+5% $654	+10% $634
Rent	-10% $551	-5% $612	+0% $674	+5% $735	+10% $797
Rate	-1.0pp $709	-0.5pp $692	base $674	+0.5pp $656	+1.0pp $637

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.261 acres (public records)No known restrictionsSubdivision: Ponderosa HillsCounty: Parker
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parkingOutside parking
• Security: Security features unknown
• Utilities: Electricity availableNot in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyBuilt in 1983PreownedNot attached to another property
• Construction: Siding exteriorComposition roofPillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es)Wood fencingCleared interior lot with large grassy backyardGrassed vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenElectric rangeVented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingElectric cooling
• Interior features: Cable TV availableDecorative lightingOne living areaOne dining areaTotal room count of 6One level

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $70,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $70,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $70,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $70,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $70,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $70,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $70,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $70,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $70,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $70,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $70,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $70,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $70,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $70,000 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $70,000 Active 51 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    price $70,000 Active 50 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $72,500 Active 50 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $72,500 Active 49 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $72,500 Active 48 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $72,500 Active 47 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $72,500 Active 46 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $72,500 Active 45 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $72,500 Active 44 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $72,500 Active 43 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $72,500 Active 42 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $72,500 Active 41 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $72,500 Active 40 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $72,500 Active 39 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $72,500 Active 38 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $72,500 Active 37 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $72,500 Active 36 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $72,500 Active 35 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $72,500 Active 34 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $72,500 Active 33 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $72,500 Active 32 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $72,500 Active 31 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $72,500 Active 30 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $72,500 Active 29 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $72,500 Active 28 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $72,500 Active 27 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $72,500 Active 26 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $72,500 Active 25 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $72,500 Active 24 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $72,500 Active 23 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $72,500 Active 22 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $72,500 Active 21 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $72,500 Active 20 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,914 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,914 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,914
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $7,469
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,793
• After-tax cash flow: $6,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $28,700–$51,660 screening

This doublewide mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with a focus on the exterior and interior paint. Upgrades in these areas can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Siding — Weathered and discolored, likely needs replacement
• Minor Paint — Chipped in some areas, touch-up needed

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and minor repairs — Improves curb appeal and interior condition, making it more attractive for buyers and renters ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ikard El F TX #2,668/4,322 Nat'l #27,846/41,679 Middle Hall Middle D TX #512/1,662 Nat'l #4,963/14,009 High Weatherford H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weatherford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844800
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,087
• Composite: 36.4/100
• National rank: #4679
• State rank: #321 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Cresson

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #15205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Parker · 179,678 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,247
• Household income: $99,355
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 12% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Current HPI: 187.0174
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.261 acres (public records)No known restrictionsSubdivision: Ponderosa HillsCounty: Parker
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parkingOutside parking
• Security: Security features unknown
• Utilities: Electricity availableNot in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyBuilt in 1983PreownedNot attached to another property
• Construction: Siding exteriorComposition roofPillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es)Wood fencingCleared interior lot with large grassy backyardGrassed vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenElectric rangeVented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingElectric cooling
• Interior features: Cable TV availableDecorative lightingOne living areaOne dining areaTotal room count of 6One level

Price history

-47.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-08-31 Listed $72,500 NTREIS
• 2026-08-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-06-29 Price Changed $74,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $79,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $84,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $90,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $109,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $84,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-15 Listed $84,999 NTREIS
• 2025-04-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $84,900 NTREIS
• 2025-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-06-12 Price Changed $119,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-16 Listed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2022-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+27.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,914 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.