2900 Ape Hole Rd · Crisfield, MD 21817

$32,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 349 Days on market

Built 1920 0.73 ac lot $25/sqft · 68% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just a short distance to downtown but far enough a way to enjoy a peaceful evening in your yard. Great opportunity to rehab or take down and build new out side of town limits with public sewer and well.

Key facts

• Public sewer
• Well
• 0.73 acre lot

Tags

• PUBLIC SEWER
• WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.2% vs local median 1.5% in Crisfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#199 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($225 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 349 days — a 12% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 349 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.88%
• DSCR: 4.64
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,418
• List price: $32,500
• Delta: -67.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3033 William Maddox Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (+10%)	3mo	$12,600	$9	62
3140 Boone Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,356 (+6%)	9mo	$206,000	$152	54
2735 Calvary Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+6%)	17mo	$149,900	$111	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $30,365
• Equity at exit: $29,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.82×
• Total profit: $80,256
• Equity at exit: $63,140

Cash invested: $9,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21817

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$170
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $645/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $841

Max offer price $32,500

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,125
• Closing costs: $975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,500 Active 349 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,500 Active 348 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,500 Active 347 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,500 Active 346 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $32,500 Active 344 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $32,500 Active 343 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $32,500 Active 341 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,500 Active 340 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $32,500 Active 339 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,500 Active 338 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $32,500 Active 333 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $32,500 Active 332 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,500 Active 331 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $32,500 Active 330 DOM
15. 2025-10-20
    price $35,000 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Just a short distance to downtown but far enough a way to enjoy a peaceful evening in your yard. Great opportunity to rehab or take down and build new out side of town limits with public sewer and well.

16. 2025-08-04
    price $40,000 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Just a short distance to downtown but far enough a way to enjoy a peaceful evening in your yard. Great opportunity to rehab or take down and build new out side of town limits with public sewer and well.

17. 2025-07-04
    listed $42,000 Active 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Just a short distance to downtown but far enough a way to enjoy a peaceful evening in your yard. Great opportunity to rehab or take down and build new out side of town limits with public sewer and well.

18. 2022-08-26
    soldstatus $24,600 Closed 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Handyman special! 2 bedroom home outside city limits with public sewer and within walking distance to the water. Home’s back floor/foundation needs to be redone. Replacement windows downstairs, updated kitchen, electrical service has been upgraded to 200 amps, and plumbing has been updated. Sold as-is.

19. 2022-08-12
    status Pending 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Handyman special! 2 bedroom home outside city limits with public sewer and within walking distance to the water. Home’s back floor/foundation needs to be redone. Replacement windows downstairs, updated kitchen, electrical service has been upgraded to 200 amps, and plumbing has been updated. Sold as-is.

20. 2022-06-23
    price $29,500 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Handyman special! 2 bedroom home outside city limits with public sewer and within walking distance to the water. Home’s back floor/foundation needs to be redone. Replacement windows downstairs, updated kitchen, electrical service has been upgraded to 200 amps, and plumbing has been updated. Sold as-is.

21. 2022-03-16
    listed $46,900 Active 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Handyman special! 2 bedroom home outside city limits with public sewer and within walking distance to the water. Home’s back floor/foundation needs to be redone. Replacement windows downstairs, updated kitchen, electrical service has been upgraded to 200 amps, and plumbing has been updated. Sold as-is.

22. 2011-12-31
    historical
23. 2011-02-25
    listed $59,900
24. 2004-04-29
    soldstatus $25,000
25. 2003-07-05
    listed $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $645 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $645 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,821
• − Property taxes: −$645
• − Insurance: −$5,281
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,043
• − Management: −$1,043
• − Depreciation: −$945
• Taxable income: $2,264
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$543
• After-tax cash flow: $1,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Crisfield

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #9181

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,102

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 20% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.92%
• Current HPI: 292.866
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $35,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $40,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-04 Listed $42,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-26 Sold (MLS) $24,600 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-23 Price Changed $29,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-03-16 Listed $46,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-02-25 Listed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-04-29 Sold (MLS) $25,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-07-05 Listed $34,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $645 · +15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.