6311 SW 153rd Ln · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot $159/sqft · 5% below area Est $297k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to your dream home! This stunning single family property offers a perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. With 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, there is plenty of space for you and your family to enjoy. Step inside and you'll be greeted by the inviting open floor plan, which allows for seamless flow and natural light throughout the home. The spacious living area is perfect for gathering with loved ones or cozying up for a movie night. The kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring a kitchen island for extra counter space, ample storage, and top-of-the-line appliances. Whether you're hosting a dinner party or cooking for your family, this kitchen has everything you need. With a two car garage and large driveway, providing convenient and secure parking for your vehicles. Being a new construction, this home offers all the benefits of a brand new build without the wait. The lot has plenty of space to enjoy outdoor activities or to create your own oasis, the possibilities are endless! This home is conveniently located near Marion Oaks Elementary School. For outdoor enthusiasts, Rainbow Springs State Park is just a 15-minute drive, offering hiking trails, swimming spots, and picnic areas. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to own your dream home in the desirable Marion Oaks. Contact us today to schedule a showing and make this property yours. Act fast, as this home is sure to attract a lot of attention. We look forward to hearing from you!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New construction
• Kitchen island

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• CONVENIENT PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,161 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,286
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -4.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15282 SW 65th Avenue Rd	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-1%)	4mo	$287,000	$162	81
6386 SW 153rd Lane Rd	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,891 (+6%)	8mo	$308,900	$163	72
6187 SW 154th St	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,891 (+6%)	8mo	$305,000	$161	68
6086 SW 154th Lane Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-10%)	1mo	$252,000	$157	64
15388 SW 60th Cir	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,679 (-6%)	14mo	$299,900	$179	63
411 Marion Oaks Pass	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,934 (+8%)	12mo	$314,000	$162	60
766 Marion Oaks Mnr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,850 (+3%)	1mo	$320,000	$173	57
6094 SW 154th Place Rd	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,666 (-7%)	14mo	$285,990	$172	56
6277 SW 148th St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+2%)	12mo	$338,990	$185	56
15117 SW 66th Avenue Rd	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,643 (-8%)	6mo	$289,000	$176	47
6884 SW 149th Lane Rd	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,676 (-6%)	13mo	$280,000	$167	46
6700 SW 156th Pl	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,052 (+14%)	15mo	$249,900	$122	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-59,475
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-84,343
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,137

Max offer price $264,717

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $47	-5% $-34	+0% $-115	+5% $-195	+10% $-276
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-193	+0% $-115	+5% $-36	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-42	base $-115	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15401 SW 65th Terrace Rd Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,900	$1.25	22d	1	0.24mi
15137 SW 61st Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,650	$1.20	22d	1	0.26mi
15284 SW 60th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,700	$1.16	14d	1	0.33mi
6765 SW 152nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,850	$1.04	14d	1	0.43mi
746 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	22d	1	0.44mi
14983 SW 65th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,995	$1.92	14d	1	0.53mi
6949 SW 152nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,000	$1.50	14d	1	0.61mi
15889 SW 58th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,875	$1.06	14d	1	0.75mi
5541 SW 153rd Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,700	$1.25	14d	1	0.80mi
15945 SW 57th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,675	$1.18	22d	1	0.84mi
585 Marion Oaks Pass Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,165	$1.13	14d	1	0.94mi
576 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,845	$1.08	14d	1	1.08mi
15713 SW 49th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	1.11mi
16210 SW 59th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	14d	1	1.11mi
16054 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	14d	1	1.12mi
820 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1747	$1,995	$1.14	22d	1	1.17mi
5077 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1761	$2,045	$1.16	14d	1	1.17mi
5141 SW 157th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	1.18mi
5029 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	1.23mi
15962 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	14d	1	1.23mi
15944 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,850	$1.40	22d	1	1.29mi
4967 SW 150th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	22d	1	1.33mi
15760 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,000	$1.32	22d	1	1.33mi
15209 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,650	$0.98	22d	1	1.39mi
15018 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,625	$1.15	14d	1	1.45mi
14965 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1342	$1,700	$1.27	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $285,000 Pending 99 DOM
2. 2026-03-17
   status Active 1525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1525 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to your dream home! This stunning single family property offers a perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. With 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, there is plenty of space for you and your family to enjoy. Step inside and you'll be greeted by the inviting open floor plan, which allows for seamless flow and natural light throughout the home. The spacious living area is perfect for gathering with loved ones or cozying up for a movie night. The kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring a kitchen island for extra counter space, ample storage, and top-of-the-line appliances. Whether you're hosting a dinner party or cooking for your family, this kitchen has everything you need. With a two car garage and large driveway, providing convenient and secure parking for your vehicles. Being a new construction, this home offers all the benefits of a brand new build without the wait. The lot has plenty of space to enjoy outdoor activities or to create your own oasis, the possibilities are endless! This home is conveniently located near Marion Oaks Elementary School. For outdoor enthusiasts, Rainbow Springs State Park is just a 15-minute drive, offering hiking trails, swimming spots, and picnic areas. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to own your dream home in the desirable Marion Oaks. Contact us today to schedule a showing and make this property yours. Act fast, as this home is sure to attract a lot of attention. We look forward to hearing from you!

3. 2026-03-16
   historical 1525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1525 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to your dream home! This stunning single family property offers a perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. With 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, there is plenty of space for you and your family to enjoy. Step inside and you'll be greeted by the inviting open floor plan, which allows for seamless flow and natural light throughout the home. The spacious living area is perfect for gathering with loved ones or cozying up for a movie night. The kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring a kitchen island for extra counter space, ample storage, and top-of-the-line appliances. Whether you're hosting a dinner party or cooking for your family, this kitchen has everything you need. With a two car garage and large driveway, providing convenient and secure parking for your vehicles. Being a new construction, this home offers all the benefits of a brand new build without the wait. The lot has plenty of space to enjoy outdoor activities or to create your own oasis, the possibilities are endless! This home is conveniently located near Marion Oaks Elementary School. For outdoor enthusiasts, Rainbow Springs State Park is just a 15-minute drive, offering hiking trails, swimming spots, and picnic areas. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to own your dream home in the desirable Marion Oaks. Contact us today to schedule a showing and make this property yours. Act fast, as this home is sure to attract a lot of attention. We look forward to hearing from you!

4. 2026-02-18
   listed $285,000 Active 1525-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1525 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to your dream home! This stunning single family property offers a perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. With 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, there is plenty of space for you and your family to enjoy. Step inside and you'll be greeted by the inviting open floor plan, which allows for seamless flow and natural light throughout the home. The spacious living area is perfect for gathering with loved ones or cozying up for a movie night. The kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring a kitchen island for extra counter space, ample storage, and top-of-the-line appliances. Whether you're hosting a dinner party or cooking for your family, this kitchen has everything you need. With a two car garage and large driveway, providing convenient and secure parking for your vehicles. Being a new construction, this home offers all the benefits of a brand new build without the wait. The lot has plenty of space to enjoy outdoor activities or to create your own oasis, the possibilities are endless! This home is conveniently located near Marion Oaks Elementary School. For outdoor enthusiasts, Rainbow Springs State Park is just a 15-minute drive, offering hiking trails, swimming spots, and picnic areas. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to own your dream home in the desirable Marion Oaks. Contact us today to schedule a showing and make this property yours. Act fast, as this home is sure to attract a lot of attention. We look forward to hearing from you!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,467/yr (+$122/mo · 163.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$6,503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,561
• After-tax cash flow: $183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $898 · +172.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.