4623 Mesquite Trail Blush · Pinehurst, TX 77362

$238,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,495 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $159/sqft · 10% below area Est $258k · 8% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Presenting this stunning Single-Family home by History Maker Homes, boasting 3 primary bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a generous 1465 sqft of living space. Crafted in 2025, this home is complete with a high ceiling, fire-smoke alarm, and a 2-cargarage. The elegant master bedroom features an en-suite bath and walk-in closet. The kitchen, which opens to the family room, showcases an island with a cooktop and pantry. Flooring comprises carpet, tile, and vinyl plank. The home is fitted with a Central Gas heating and Central Electric cooling system. Served by the acclaimed Magnolia District and West High School. This traditional style property, set on a subdivision lot, awaits your visit.

Key facts

• High ceiling
• Pantry
• Magnolia district

Tags

• HIGH CEILING
• ISLAND WITH COOKTOP
• PANTRY
• CENTRAL GAS HEATING
• CENTRAL ELECTRIC COOLING
• MAGNOLIA DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-198 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,306
• List price: $238,000
• Delta: -7.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4558 Pinehurst Trace Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+2%)	3mo	$246,990	$163	89
4535 Pinehurst Trace Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-4%)	1mo	$235,000	$163	86
4407 Azalea Blossom Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+2%)	12mo	$249,990	$165	77
4519 Pinehurst Trace Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-7%)	5mo	$234,990	$168	77
4322 Maple Root Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+2%)	13mo	$243,990	$161	75
4225 Red Cedar Ring Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-2%)	9mo	$259,990	$177	74
4642 Coral Bean St	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,657 (+11%)	0mo	$273,990	$165	72
4350 Maple Root Ln	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,570 (+5%)	10mo	$276,310	$176	71
4426 Azalea Blossom Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-7%)	11mo	$234,990	$168	70
2971 Colonia Blossom Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-7%)	6mo	$245,990	$176	70
3007 Wicker Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,641 (+10%)	7mo	$259,990	$158	61
4016 Colony River Rock Blvd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+9%)	3mo	$249,990	$153	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-51,087
• Equity at exit: $35,487

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-60,296
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 32 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.3 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $275,490 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 143 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77362

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,477/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,251

Max offer price $202,962

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-131	+0% $-198	+5% $-266	+10% $-333
Rent	-10% $-356	-5% $-277	+0% $-198	+5% $-119	+10% $-40
Rate	-1.0pp $-78	-0.5pp $-138	base $-198	+0.5pp $-260	+1.0pp $-323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4311 Maple Root Ln Pinehurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	93d	1	0.25mi

HOA detail $58/mo · $696/yr

• Likely covers: gaselectric

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-30
   days on market $238,000 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-07-28
   days on market $238,000 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-07-26
   days on market $238,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-07-24
   days on market $238,000 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-07-23
   days on market $238,000 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-07-22
   days on market $238,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-07-21
   days on market $238,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-07-20
   days on market $238,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-07-18
   days on market $238,000 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-07-18
    days on market $238,000 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-07-16
    days on market $238,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-07-15
    days on market $238,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-07-14
    days on market $238,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-07-13
    days on market $238,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-07-11
    days on market $238,000 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-07-10
    days on market $238,000 Active 161 DOM
17. 2026-07-09
    days on market $238,000 Active 160 DOM
18. 2026-07-07
    days on market $238,000 Active 158 DOM
19. 2026-07-06
    days on market $238,000 Active 157 DOM
20. 2026-07-06
    days on market $238,000 Active 156 DOM
21. 2026-07-05
    days on market $238,000 Active 155 DOM
22. 2026-07-03
    days on market $238,000 Active 154 DOM
23. 2026-07-02
    days on market $238,000 Active 153 DOM
24. 2026-07-01
    days on market $238,000 Active 152 DOM
25. 2026-06-30
    days on market $238,000 Active 151 DOM
26. 2026-06-29
    days on market $238,000 Active 150 DOM
27. 2026-06-28
    days on market $238,000 Active 149 DOM
28. 2026-06-27
    days on market $238,000 Active 148 DOM
29. 2026-06-26
    days on market $238,000 Active 147 DOM
30. 2026-06-24
    days on market $238,000 Active 145 DOM
31. 2026-06-22
    days on market $238,000 Active 143 DOM
32. 2026-06-21
    days on market $238,000 Active 142 DOM
33. 2026-06-18
    days on market $238,000 Active 139 DOM
34. 2026-06-17
    price $238,000 Active 138 DOM
35. 2026-06-17
    days on market $243,000 Active 138 DOM
36. 2026-06-16
    days on market $243,000 Active 137 DOM
37. 2026-06-15
    days on market $243,000 Active 136 DOM
38. 2026-06-13
    days on market $243,000 Active 134 DOM
39. 2026-06-09
    days on market $243,000 Active 130 DOM
40. 2026-06-08
    days on market $243,000 Active 129 DOM
41. 2026-06-07
    days on market $243,000 Active 128 DOM
42. 2026-06-04
    days on market $243,000 Active 125 DOM
43. 2026-06-03
    days on market $243,000 Active 124 DOM
44. 2026-06-02
    days on market $243,000 Active 123 DOM
45. 2026-06-01
    days on market $243,000 Active 122 DOM
46. 2026-05-31
    days on market $243,000 Active 121 DOM
47. 2026-04-22
    price $243,000 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Presenting this stunning Single-Family home by History Maker Homes, boasting 3 primary bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a generous 1465 sqft of living space. Crafted in 2025, this home is complete with a high ceiling, fire-smoke alarm, and a 2-cargarage. The elegant master bedroom features an en-suite bath and walk-in closet. The kitchen, which opens to the family room, showcases an island with a cooktop and pantry. Flooring comprises carpet, tile, and vinyl plank. The home is fitted with a Central Gas heating and Central Electric cooling system. Served by the acclaimed Magnolia District and West High School. This traditional style property, set on a subdivision lot, awaits your visit.

48. 2026-01-30
    listed $245,000 Active 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Presenting this stunning Single-Family home by History Maker Homes, boasting 3 primary bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a generous 1465 sqft of living space. Crafted in 2025, this home is complete with a high ceiling, fire-smoke alarm, and a 2-cargarage. The elegant master bedroom features an en-suite bath and walk-in closet. The kitchen, which opens to the family room, showcases an island with a cooktop and pantry. Flooring comprises carpet, tile, and vinyl plank. The home is fitted with a Central Gas heating and Central Electric cooling system. Served by the acclaimed Magnolia District and West High School. This traditional style property, set on a subdivision lot, awaits your visit.

49. 2026-01-29
    historical
50. 2025-11-04
    price $248,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,477 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,477 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$4,477
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$6,458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,550
• After-tax cash flow: $-830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,475–$22,425 screening

This well-maintained single-family home is in good condition with a good roof, exterior, and interior. It has a spacious kitchen and bathroom, and is located in a desirable neighborhood. The home is ready for a new owner and can be further enhanced with some cosmetic updates and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace the carpet with hardwood in the bedrooms — Hardwood floors are more durable and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient for potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle Magnolia J H F TX #805/1,662 Nat'l #7,206/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 55/100

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• County: Montgomery · 713,896 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,474
• Household income: $80,982
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.65%
• Current HPI: 284.6412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $243,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $248,500 HARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed $264,990 HARMLS
• 2025-04-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-11 Price Changed $284,990 HARMLS
• 2025-01-09 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2024-10-18 Listed $281,990 HARMLS