1219 Sullivan Ave · St. Louis, MO 63107

$53,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1972 5,928 sqft lot $41/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Will need full rehab

Key facts

• 5,928 sq ft lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 148 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $53k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $821 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $53k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.9% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $929 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $53k implies a 562% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.42%
• DSCR: 3.96
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,786
• List price: $53,000
• Delta: -59.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2239 University St	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,116 (-14%)	10mo	$79,900	$72	42
1522 Mallinckrodt St	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,100 (-15%)	22mo	$179,900	$164	27
1524 Mallinckrodt St	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,100 (-15%)	22mo	$179,900	$164	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $46,548
• Equity at exit: $10,907

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.44×
• Total profit: $110,427
• Equity at exit: $9,913

Cash invested: $14,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63107

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,445 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $242/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $821

Break-even live

Break-even rent $405

Max offer price $53,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,250
• Closing costs: $1,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2239 University St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,295	$1.16	12d	1	0.56mi
2207 Angelica St Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1734	$1,350	$0.78	43d	1	1.02mi
1111 Biddle St Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	43d	1	1.10mi
1115 Carr St St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	747	$1,123	$1.50	4d	13	1.17mi
1204 N 8th St St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0	740	$1,062	$1.44	1d	19	1.19mi
1300 Convention Plz Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	877	$1,350	$1.54	43d	1	1.36mi
1627 Washington Ave Unit 202 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1450	$1,625	$1.12	43d	1	1.41mi
1627 Washington Ave Apt 503 St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	43d	1	1.41mi
1635 Washington Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	1135	$1,495	$1.32	3d	4	1.41mi
715 N 21st St St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,355	$1.51	23d	1	1.42mi
1901 Washington Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$1,500	$1.39	4d	38	1.43mi
1307 Washington Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	1261	$1,485	$1.18	7d	17	1.43mi
2002 Obear Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1024	$970	$0.95	4d	1	1.43mi
2046 Obear Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1456	$1,070	$0.73	43d	1	1.44mi
1209 Washington Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1483	$2,190	$1.48	1d	22	1.44mi
1906 Obear Ave #1 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1024	$970	$0.95	21d	1	1.44mi
1706 Washington Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,761	$1.77	1d	10	1.45mi
2034 Lucas Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	1080	$1,525	$1.41	43d	1	1.45mi
1133 Washington Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0–2.0	637	$1,292	$2.03	43d	1	1.45mi
1800 Washington Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,645	$1.77	43d	13	1.45mi
1324 Washington Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1789	$1,962	$1.10	1d	1	1.46mi
1900 Washington Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	2d	12	1.46mi
2206 Lucas Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$1,900	$1.81	1d	20	1.47mi
4202 Gano Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,168	$0.71	23d	1	1.48mi
1815 Locust St Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	983	$1,543	$1.57	43d	7	1.49mi
1110 Washington Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$1,426	$1.42	2d	19	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $53,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $53,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $53,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $53,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $53,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $53,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $53,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $53,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $53,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $53,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $53,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $53,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $53,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-04-27
    price $53,000 20-char remark

    Show marketing remark (20 chars)

    Will need full rehab

15. 2026-04-13
    price $60,000 20-char remark

    Show marketing remark (20 chars)

    Will need full rehab

16. 2026-02-17
    status Active 20-char remark

    Show marketing remark (20 chars)

    Will need full rehab

17. 2026-02-09
    status Pending 20-char remark

    Show marketing remark (20 chars)

    Will need full rehab

18. 2026-01-13
    listed $65,000 Active 20-char remark

    Show marketing remark (20 chars)

    Will need full rehab

19. 2005-09-06
    soldstatus
20. 2004-03-04
    soldstatus $8,000
21. 1995-10-01
    soldstatus
22. 1995-09-01
    soldstatus
23. 1995-05-16
    soldstatus $17,908

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $242 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $514 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$272/yr (+$23/mo · 112.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,969
• − Property taxes: −$242
• − Insurance: −$265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,387
• − Management: −$1,387
• − Depreciation: −$1,542
• Taxable income: $9,549
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,292
• After-tax cash flow: $7,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• City population: 283,259
• Population (ZIP): 9,082

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.75%
• Current HPI: 92.7423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+196.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $53,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $60,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $65,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records
• 1995-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $17,908 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $242 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.