30 Welles St · Waterbury, CT 06706

$201,930

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,046 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1916 4,356 sqft lot $193/sqft · 23% below area Est $262k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained half duplex in the desirable Hopeville section of Waterbury! Owned and lovingly cared for by the same family for over 56 years, this charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and pride of ownership. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 1 full bath, a bright kitchen, inviting living room, and a cozy dining area, this home is ideal for anyone looking for a warm and welcoming space to call their own. The property has been exceptionally well maintained throughout the years, showcasing true care and attention to detail. Enjoy the benefits of quiet surroundings while still being just minutes from major highways, public transportation, pa

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1916

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Concrete foundation; Blue exterior color; Built prior to or by public records (living area listed as 1046)
• Exterior features: Deck; Partially fenced lot; Level, dry lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating; Natural gas hot water (30-gallon tank); Natural gas heating fuel
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Full, unfinished basement; Attic with pull-down stairs
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in lower-level basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $202k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $202k).
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.6% in Waterbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#32 in CT, #2,205 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D.
• Waterbury School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #148 of 153 in CT (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crosby High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #187 of 194 statewide, top 96%, 1,400 students, 84% FRL).
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,201/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 801% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,930

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.14%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,970
• List price: $201,930
• Delta: -22.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $77,202
• Equity at exit: $73,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $199,760
• Equity at exit: $100,461

Cash invested: $56,540 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06706

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,059
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,547/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $1,090

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,821

Max offer price $201,930

Occupancy floor 61%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$3,202
Total (2 units)			$3,201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,482
• Closing costs: $6,058
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
59 Baldwin Ave Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	44d	1	0.21mi
1120 Baldwin St Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	44d	1	0.30mi
29 Madison St Unit 2 Waterbury, CT	4.0	1.0	1010	$1,900	$1.88	44d	1	0.38mi
909 Hamilton Ave #6 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.5	896	$1,600	$1.79	19d	1	0.48mi
56 Lounsbury St Unit 3s Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	810	$1,250	$1.54	23d	1	0.48mi
429 Baldwin St Unit 2 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	3d	1	0.67mi
423 Baldwin St Unit 2 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	3d	1	0.67mi
691 S Main St Unit 3RD Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	0.77mi
124 Spring Lake Rd Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.5	1298	$2,200	$1.69	3d	1	0.87mi
124 Charles St Unit 2 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,800	$1.78	44d	1	0.90mi
1720 E Main St Unit 2nd Floor Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	1026	$1,350	$1.32	44d	1	0.91mi
1720 E Main St Unit 1st Floor Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	1026	$1,250	$1.22	44d	1	0.91mi
124 Geddes Ter Waterbury, CT	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,300	$1.83	44d	1	0.99mi
468 Congress Ave Unit third floor Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	23d	1	1.00mi
100 Meriden Rd Unit A Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,850	$1.77	14d	1	1.00mi
124 Geddes Ter Unit Left Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.5	1255	$2,300	$1.83	44d	1	1.00mi
75 Alma St Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1143	$1,850	$1.62	44d	1	1.05mi
779 E Main St Unit 2nd floor Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1149	$1,400	$1.22	23d	1	1.06mi
67 Avon Ave Unit 2 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	887	$1,700	$1.92	23d	1	1.07mi
136 Jersey St Unit 158-08 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	750	$1,525	$2.03	11d	1	1.08mi
136 Jersey St Unit 156-03 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	750	$1,500	$2.00	3d	1	1.08mi
95 Hawthorne Ave Unit 2 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	1.11mi
182 Jersey St #2 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	44d	1	1.12mi
182 Jersey St #2 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	11d	1	1.12mi
59 Green St Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	44d	1	1.13mi
241 Congress Ave Unit 1st Floor Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	909	$1,300	$1.43	44d	1	1.13mi
91 Taft St Unit 11 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.5	1320	$2,600	$1.97	44d	1	1.14mi
44 Taft St Unit 9 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,100	$1.75	44d	1	1.15mi
22 Holly St Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	848	$1,850	$2.18	23d	1	1.16mi
127 Congress Ave Unit 1 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	44d	1	1.18mi
143 Congress Ave Unit 2 Waterbury, CT	4.0	1.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	44d	1	1.19mi
29 Bouley Ave Waterbury, CT	4.0	1.0	1267	$3,000	$2.37	44d	1	1.20mi
77 Wall St Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	11d	1	1.23mi
25 Laurel St #1 Waterbury, CT	4.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	44d	1	1.23mi
214 Oak St Unit 3 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,700	$1.39	11d	1	1.23mi
30 Walnut Ave Unit 2 Waterbury, CT	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	1.27mi
219 Nichols Dr Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,550	$1.46	3d	1	1.30mi
1101 Highland Ave Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.5	1380	$1,800	$1.30	23d	1	1.31mi
1101 Highland Ave Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.5	1180	$1,800	$1.53	44d	1	1.31mi
14 Elmview Cir Unit 3 Waterbury, CT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	23d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical $201,930 1021-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,547 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$387/yr (+$32/mo · 10.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,311
• − Property taxes: −$3,547
• − Insurance: −$1,010
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,073
• − Management: −$3,073
• − Depreciation: −$5,874
• Taxable income: $10,524
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,526
• After-tax cash flow: $10,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterbury School District
• NCES district ID: 0904830
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,040
• Composite: 14.85/100
• National rank: #9380
• State rank: #148 of 153 in CT

Livability — Waterbury

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2205

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waterbury, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 115,012
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 15,551
• Household income: $52,242
• Rent vs Own: 59.2% rent · 40.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 801.0

Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 496,846

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% White 31% Black 25% Two or more races 12% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Estonian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.39%
• Current HPI: 309.8467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-24 Listed $201,930 Smart MLS
• 2026-05-14 Coming Soon $201,930 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,547 · +54.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.