104 Mayfair Pl SW · Winter Haven, FL 33880

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1984 2,100 sqft lot ↓ 55% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath Townhome/Villa for Sale in quiet community of Mayfair. Close to Lake Howard, Lake May, and Lake Shipp. Ceramic tile floors throughout. Vaulted ceiling in living room.

Key facts

• Sliding glass doors
• Ceramic tile floors
• Open kitchen

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE FLOORS
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GAS RANGE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; No lease restrictions; Living area about 1,140 sq ft (building area total 1,240 sq ft)
• HOA & community: Association: STAR REALTY; No association fee requirement; Association management: Full time; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Parking pad; No additional designated spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.05-acre lot (approx. 20 x 105)
• Exterior features: Patio; Sliding doors; City limits lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; High ceilings; Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Window treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Shipp Elementary School (math 30% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,744 of 2,144 statewide, top 82%, 628 students, 60% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $140k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.73%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,344
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $15,415
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,554 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,803/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,193

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Mayfair Pl SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,525	$1.23	23d	1	0.04mi
1304 15th St SW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,750	$1.94	23d	1	0.11mi
1300 S Lake Howard Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1464	$1,788	$1.22	10d	20	0.36mi
1935 Avenue O SW Unit 201 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,400	$1.38	18d	1	0.52mi
1860 Avenue Q SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	995	$1,199	$1.21	18d	1	0.57mi
1870 Avenue Q SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,199	$1.25	3d	1	0.59mi
1874 Avenue Q SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	995	$1,250	$1.26	3d	1	0.59mi
521 20th St SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	732	$1,175	$1.61	3d	1	0.59mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 203 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	2d	1	0.76mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 102 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	23d	1	0.76mi
701 Bates Ave SW Unit 101 Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	23d	1	0.76mi
102 Landings Way Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	738	$1,385	$1.88	3d	9	0.81mi
265 East St Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$2,250	$2.97	2d	41	0.89mi
2214 Avenue B SW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,775	$1.33	23d	1	0.98mi
200 Avenue C SW Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,950	$2.29	3d	12	1.00mi
2416 Avenue B SW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$2,000	$1.46	23d	1	1.06mi
106 Avenue D SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,600	$1.74	3d	1	1.06mi
240 2nd St SW #201 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1241	$1,725	$1.39	23d	1	1.07mi
240 2nd St SW Apt 105 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	778	$1,399	$1.80	23d	1	1.07mi
265 25th St SW Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	880	$1,200	$1.36	23d	1	1.12mi
601 2nd St SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1072	$1,195	$1.11	3d	1	1.15mi
200 Avenue K SE Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1095	$1,442	$1.32	2d	45	1.15mi
2001 San Marcos Dr SE #11 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,325	$1.38	14d	1	1.16mi
2025 San Marcos Dr SE #27 Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	792	$1,200	$1.52	14d	1	1.18mi
151 Avenue C SW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	819	$1,300	$1.59	23d	1	1.22mi
Deena Way Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	840	$1,225	$1.46	23d	1	1.23mi
403 Avenue J SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	23d	1	1.26mi
333 Lake Howard Dr NW Unit 312C Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,425	$1.38	23d	1	1.26mi
2414 Avenue A Ter NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,900	$1.30	14d	1	1.26mi
2312 Isle Royale Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,499	$1.17	3d	1	1.28mi
332 Avenue D SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,800	$1.65	3d	1	1.29mi
163 Avenue A SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	854	$1,250	$1.46	23d	1	1.30mi
209 Avenue B SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,500	$2.08	14d	1	1.32mi
1800 3rd Ct SE Apt E Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	714	$1,400	$1.96	23d	1	1.32mi
1800 3rd Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	714	$1,400	$1.96	23d	1	1.32mi
2374 Isle Royale Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	1320	$1,700	$1.29	23d	1	1.34mi
350 24th St NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	660	$1,549	$2.35	3d	13	1.38mi
547 Snively Ave Eloise, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$600	$0.55	23d	1	1.38mi
720 6th St NW Unit 1 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	740	$750	$1.01	23d	1	1.40mi
720 6th St NW Unit 3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	740	$700	$0.95	23d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   status Active
3. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-11
   status Active
5. 2026-02-11
   price $140,000
6. 2026-01-27
   status Pending
7. 2026-01-09
   price $150,000
8. 2025-11-07
   listed $165,000 Active
9. 2025-04-04
   historical $1,300
10. 2025-03-15
    listed $1,300
11. 2016-09-14
    soldstatus $48,000
12. 2016-09-09
    soldstatus $48,000 Sold 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath Townhome/Villa for Sale in quiet community of Mayfair. Close to Lake Howard, Lake May, and Lake Shipp. Ceramic tile floors throughout. Vaulted ceiling in living room.

13. 2016-08-13
    historical Contingent - Inspections 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath Townhome/Villa for Sale in quiet community of Mayfair. Close to Lake Howard, Lake May, and Lake Shipp. Ceramic tile floors throughout. Vaulted ceiling in living room.

14. 2016-08-13
    status Active 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath Townhome/Villa for Sale in quiet community of Mayfair. Close to Lake Howard, Lake May, and Lake Shipp. Ceramic tile floors throughout. Vaulted ceiling in living room.

15. 2016-08-13
    historical Contingent - Inspections 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath Townhome/Villa for Sale in quiet community of Mayfair. Close to Lake Howard, Lake May, and Lake Shipp. Ceramic tile floors throughout. Vaulted ceiling in living room.

16. 2014-06-10
    historical 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath Townhome/Villa for Sale in quiet community of Mayfair. Close to Lake Howard, Lake May, and Lake Shipp. Ceramic tile floors throughout. Vaulted ceiling in living room.

17. 2014-05-15
    price $55,000 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath Townhome/Villa for Sale in quiet community of Mayfair. Close to Lake Howard, Lake May, and Lake Shipp. Ceramic tile floors throughout. Vaulted ceiling in living room.

18. 2014-05-15
    price $57,900 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath Townhome/Villa for Sale in quiet community of Mayfair. Close to Lake Howard, Lake May, and Lake Shipp. Ceramic tile floors throughout. Vaulted ceiling in living room.

19. 2014-05-15
    price $52,000 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath Townhome/Villa for Sale in quiet community of Mayfair. Close to Lake Howard, Lake May, and Lake Shipp. Ceramic tile floors throughout. Vaulted ceiling in living room.

20. 2014-05-15
    price $62,900 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath Townhome/Villa for Sale in quiet community of Mayfair. Close to Lake Howard, Lake May, and Lake Shipp. Ceramic tile floors throughout. Vaulted ceiling in living room.

21. 2014-05-15
    status Active 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath Townhome/Villa for Sale in quiet community of Mayfair. Close to Lake Howard, Lake May, and Lake Shipp. Ceramic tile floors throughout. Vaulted ceiling in living room.

22. 2014-04-23
    price $65,900 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath Townhome/Villa for Sale in quiet community of Mayfair. Close to Lake Howard, Lake May, and Lake Shipp. Ceramic tile floors throughout. Vaulted ceiling in living room.

23. 2014-04-23
    listed $59,900 Active 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath Townhome/Villa for Sale in quiet community of Mayfair. Close to Lake Howard, Lake May, and Lake Shipp. Ceramic tile floors throughout. Vaulted ceiling in living room.

24. 2012-02-10
    historical
25. 2012-01-30
    listed $29,900
26. 2010-10-26
    listed $37,000
27. 1998-12-02
    soldstatus $65,000
28. 1996-11-25
    soldstatus $310,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,803 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,803
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,492
• − Management: −$1,492
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$300
• After-tax cash flow: $3,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-54.8% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-04 Rental Removed $1,300 STELLARMLS
• 2025-03-15 Listed for Rent $1,300 STELLARMLS
• 2016-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-09 Sold (MLS) $48,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-13 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-13 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-15 Price Changed $52,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-15 Price Changed $57,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-15 Price Changed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-15 Price Changed $62,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-23 Price Changed $65,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-23 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-30 Listed $29,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-26 Listed $37,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1996-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,803 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.