3753 Muller Dr · Zephyrhills, FL 33540

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 216 Days on market

Built 1973 10,455 sqft lot Est $44k · 49% over $41/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 LOTS:Its like having your own park. 2 bedroom 2 bath on two tree shaded gorgeous lots in Shady Oaks. So much room in this home with a 15x19 living room, large kitchen pantry, front Florida room, screen porches utility storage and workshop. Some furnitureincluded.

Key facts

• Large kitchen pantry
• Front florida room
• Two tree shaded lots

Tags

• TWO TREE SHADED LOTS
• LARGE KITCHEN PANTRY
• FRONT FLORIDA ROOM
• SCREEN PORCHES
• UTILITY STORAGE
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $65k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.48%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $43,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38317 Palm Grove Dr	0.44mi	1/1.0 (-1)	576 (-14%)	10mo	$37,500	$65	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $8,368
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $31,865
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33540

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,859/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $714

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4352 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$1,100	$2.23	24d	1	0.64mi
4410 Plum St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,100	$1.76	24d	1	0.68mi
4412 Plum St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,100	$1.76	24d	1	0.69mi
37925 Date Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,300	$1.81	24d	1	0.98mi
38941 C Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	520	$1,050	$2.02	4d	1	1.12mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	10d	1	1.19mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	24d	1	1.24mi
5150 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	24d	1	1.44mi
38044 6th Ave Unit 38044 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$950	$1.92	24d	1	1.46mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	16d	1	1.47mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	4d	1	1.47mi
5206 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	4d	1	1.47mi
5208 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	4d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $65,000 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-02-09
   status Pending
10. 2025-12-30
    price $75,000
11. 2025-11-25
    status Active
12. 2025-11-25
    price $80,000
13. 2025-10-31
    historical
14. 2025-09-23
    price $85,000
15. 2025-08-13
    price $90,000
16. 2025-07-17
    price $95,000
17. 2025-06-27
    listed $99,900 Active
18. 2012-05-01
    soldstatus $33,000
19. 2012-04-30
    soldstatus $33,000 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    2 LOTS:Its like having your own park. 2 bedroom 2 bath on two tree shaded gorgeous lots in Shady Oaks. So much room in this home with a 15x19 living room, large kitchen pantry, front Florida room, screen porches utility storage and workshop. Some furnitureincluded.

20. 2011-12-09
    listed $34,900 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    2 LOTS:Its like having your own park. 2 bedroom 2 bath on two tree shaded gorgeous lots in Shady Oaks. So much room in this home with a 15x19 living room, large kitchen pantry, front Florida room, screen porches utility storage and workshop. Some furnitureincluded.

21. 1997-04-30
    soldstatus $30,000
22. 1996-03-12
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,859 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,859 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,859
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,044
• − Management: −$1,044
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $2,756
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$661
• After-tax cash flow: $2,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 48,266
• Population (ZIP): 11,098

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.57%
• Current HPI: 370.8747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 2012-04-30 Sold (MLS) $33,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-09 Listed $34,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,859 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.