204 S 10th St · Herrin, IL 62948

$9,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 1914 6,098 sqft lot $9/sqft · 88% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Near Herrin Maytag. Range, Refrigerator

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1914

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Built before 1978
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway with space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (standard)
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story; Fee simple ownership; School bus service available; Unincorporated location
• Construction: Built over 100 years ago; Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Level lot; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 120; Less than 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (approx. 13 x 15); Second bedroom on main level (approx. 13 x 11); Two bedrooms total
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Four total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $761 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $10k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 98.5% vs local median 8.5% in Herrin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#667 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Herrin CUSD 4 (suburban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #364 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $68 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $297 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (60%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $9,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 98.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 329.46%
• DSCR: 15.66
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,355
• List price: $9,900
• Delta: -88.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 S 10th St St	0.01mi	2/1.0	1,140 (-2%)	5mo	$115,000	$101	92
501 S 7th St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,148 (-1%)	0mo	$118,000	$103	80
320 N 9th St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,162 (-0%)	1mo	$159,700	$137	80
404 N 12th St	0.35mi	2/—	1,072 (-8%)	0mo	$25,000	$23	70
716 N 13th St	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,232 (+6%)	0mo	$119,000	$97	63
413 N 8th St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-7%)	5mo	$70,000	$65	62
520 S 6th St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,060 (-9%)	2mo	$115,000	$108	61
1101 S 16th St	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,170 (+0%)	6mo	$58,000	$50	60
517 N 12th St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-6%)	6mo	$116,500	$106	60
917 S 11th St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,291 (+11%)	1mo	$131,848	$102	57
912 N 13th St	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,207 (+4%)	6mo	$74,500	$62	56
717 S 18th St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,234 (+6%)	3mo	$105,100	$85	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.91×
• Total profit: $46,884
• Equity at exit: $1,476

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 38.27×
• Total profit: $103,306
• Equity at exit: $856

Cash invested: $2,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62948

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$12 /mo · $148/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $761

Break-even live

Break-even rent $87

Max offer price $9,900

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,475
• Closing costs: $297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Court C Herrin, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	44d	1	0.79mi
3 Ct D Herrin, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	44d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $9,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $9,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $9,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $9,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $9,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $9,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $13,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $13,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $13,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $13,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $13,900 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $13,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $13,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 531-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $13,900 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $15,900 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $15,900 Active 28 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    price $19,900 434-char remark
19. 2026-05-02
    listed $24,900 Active 434-char remark
20. 2021-08-06
    historical
21. 2003-10-31
    soldstatus $33,700

    Show marketing remark (39 chars)

    Near Herrin Maytag. Range, Refrigerator

22. 2003-10-31
    soldstatus $34,000

    Show marketing remark (39 chars)

    Near Herrin Maytag. Range, Refrigerator

23. 2003-10-10
    historical
24. 2003-05-07
    listed $36,500

    Show marketing remark (39 chars)

    Near Herrin Maytag. Range, Refrigerator

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$555
• − Property taxes: −$148
• − Insurance: −$50
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,008
• − Management: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$288
• Taxable income: $9,543
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,290
• After-tax cash flow: $6,842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herrin CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1718810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $38,824
• Composite: 20.56/100
• National rank: #8558
• State rank: #364 of 620 in IL

Livability — Herrin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #13670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herrin, IL
• City population: 12,728
• Population (ZIP): 12,728

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.82%
• Current HPI: 131.1617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-72.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $9,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $13,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $15,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $19,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Listed $24,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-31 Sold (MLS) $33,700 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-10 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-05-07 Listed $36,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $763 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.