257 Mary Kay Ln · Oildale, CA 93308

$107,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,214 sqft · Manufactured · 203 Days on market

Built 2019 3,500 sqft lot $89/sqft · 20% above area Est $90k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * CASH OFFERS * * Don't miss this stunning 1214 sq ft newer home in the gated Riverdale Village Mobile Home Park. Boasting 3-Bedrooms and 2-Bathrooms, this splitwing residence is completely turn-key and ready for you! The interior and exterior of this house is been well maintained by current owners, dual-pane windows and recessed LED lighting throughout the house, you will love the granite countertops in this kitchen. Spacious bedrooms and an amazing primary bedroom with dual closets and an in suite bathroom. Enjoy premium community amenities such as a sparkling pool, gym, game center, soccer and basketball courts, and aclubhouse with a full kitchen and recreational room. There's even a playground and dog station, ensuring delight for every familymember. This home combines comfort with a vibrant community lifestyle. The vibrant neighborhood ambiance ensures that you willnot only enjoy your home but also a dynamic and engaging community experience.

Key facts

• Dual-pane windows
• Game center
• Gym

Tags

• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• RECESSED LED LIGHTING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PREMIUM COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• GYM
• GAME CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.9% in Oildale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#680 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, schools B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Beardsley Elementary (suburban): math 7% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #501 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $746 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $108k implies a 484% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,039 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.85%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,140
• List price: $107,999
• Delta: 19.81%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
256 Mary Kay Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+3%)	3mo	$130,000	$104	92
48 Cedarwood Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+3%)	1mo	$70,000	$56	88
4 Dogwood Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	8mo	$65,000	$56	78
282 Florence Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	16mo	$111,000	$96	75
131 Fernwood Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+3%)	15mo	$120,000	$96	75
305 Kings Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-6%)	13mo	$99,900	$88	75
300 Florence Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+7%)	20mo	$99,500	$77	68
316 Nita	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+11%)	7mo	$82,500	$61	65
159 Hickorywood Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+11%)	3mo	$99,000	$74	65
170 Hickorywood Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (+9%)	19mo	$95,000	$72	57
101 Cinnamon Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+11%)	21mo	$85,000	$63	57
153 Hickorywood Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (+13%)	15mo	$38,000	$28	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $11,569
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $44,258
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93308

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$135 /mo · $1,620/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $945

Max offer price $107,999

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 Beardsley Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	2d	1	0.26mi
627 Beardsley Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	967	$1,575	$1.63	43d	1	0.29mi
706 Huskey Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	832	$1,450	$1.74	43d	1	0.32mi
213 Oildale Dr Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	928	$1,195	$1.29	2d	1	0.37mi
627 Hood Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	2d	1	0.41mi
819 Washington Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	767	$1,295	$1.69	2d	1	0.50mi
327 McCord Ave Unit 6 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	2d	1	0.53mi
448 S Oildale Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	2d	1	0.57mi
611 Wilson Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	43d	1	0.66mi
222 Moneta Ave Unit 222 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,700	$1.63	2d	1	0.67mi
419 Washington Ave Unit 417 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	2d	1	0.67mi
222 Harding Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	2d	1	0.70mi
901 Castaic Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1076	$1,700	$1.58	2d	1	0.75mi
1405 Yosemite Dr Unit 1405 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	712	$1,100	$1.54	43d	1	0.82mi
1207 El Tejon Ave Unit 1 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1212	$1,950	$1.61	2d	1	0.86mi
709 Francis St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	43d	1	0.93mi
106 E Warren Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,400	$1.20	10d	1	0.99mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	990	$1,495	$1.51	2d	1	1.11mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,595	$1.61	14d	1	1.11mi
1905 McCray St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	736	$1,450	$1.97	2d	1	1.14mi
1951 Golden State Ave Bakersfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1017	$1,695	$1.67	2d	2	1.23mi
411 Highland Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1051	$1,650	$1.57	2d	1	1.27mi
615 W China Grade Loop Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,850	$2.11	2d	6	1.30mi
3817 K St Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	763	$1,285	$1.68	2d	1	1.40mi
1201 40th St Bakersfield, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,219	$1.40	2d	1	1.46mi
210 Douglas St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1274	$1,400	$1.10	2d	1	1.46mi
2600 Park Meadows Dr Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	864	$1,495	$1.73	2d	2	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $107,999 Active 203 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $107,999 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $107,999 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $107,999 Active 198 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $107,999 Active 197 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $107,999 Active 196 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $107,999 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $107,999 Active 194 DOM
9. 2026-05-15
   price $107,999 965-char remark

   Show marketing remark (965 chars)

   * * CASH OFFERS * * Don't miss this stunning 1214 sq ft newer home in the gated Riverdale Village Mobile Home Park. Boasting 3-Bedrooms and 2-Bathrooms, this splitwing residence is completely turn-key and ready for you! The interior and exterior of this house is been well maintained by current owners, dual-pane windows and recessed LED lighting throughout the house, you will love the granite countertops in this kitchen. Spacious bedrooms and an amazing primary bedroom with dual closets and an in suite bathroom. Enjoy premium community amenities such as a sparkling pool, gym, game center, soccer and basketball courts, and aclubhouse with a full kitchen and recreational room. There's even a playground and dog station, ensuring delight for every familymember. This home combines comfort with a vibrant community lifestyle. The vibrant neighborhood ambiance ensures that you willnot only enjoy your home but also a dynamic and engaging community experience.

10. 2026-04-28
    price $108,000 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    * * CASH OFFERS * * Don't miss this stunning 1214 sq ft newer home in the gated Riverdale Village Mobile Home Park. Boasting 3-Bedrooms and 2-Bathrooms, this splitwing residence is completely turn-key and ready for you! The interior and exterior of this house is been well maintained by current owners, dual-pane windows and recessed LED lighting throughout the house, you will love the granite countertops in this kitchen. Spacious bedrooms and an amazing primary bedroom with dual closets and an in suite bathroom. Enjoy premium community amenities such as a sparkling pool, gym, game center, soccer and basketball courts, and aclubhouse with a full kitchen and recreational room. There's even a playground and dog station, ensuring delight for every familymember. This home combines comfort with a vibrant community lifestyle. The vibrant neighborhood ambiance ensures that you willnot only enjoy your home but also a dynamic and engaging community experience.

11. 2026-01-27
    price $115,000 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    * * CASH OFFERS * * Don't miss this stunning 1214 sq ft newer home in the gated Riverdale Village Mobile Home Park. Boasting 3-Bedrooms and 2-Bathrooms, this splitwing residence is completely turn-key and ready for you! The interior and exterior of this house is been well maintained by current owners, dual-pane windows and recessed LED lighting throughout the house, you will love the granite countertops in this kitchen. Spacious bedrooms and an amazing primary bedroom with dual closets and an in suite bathroom. Enjoy premium community amenities such as a sparkling pool, gym, game center, soccer and basketball courts, and aclubhouse with a full kitchen and recreational room. There's even a playground and dog station, ensuring delight for every familymember. This home combines comfort with a vibrant community lifestyle. The vibrant neighborhood ambiance ensures that you willnot only enjoy your home but also a dynamic and engaging community experience.

12. 2025-11-18
    listed $125,000 Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    * * CASH OFFERS * * Don't miss this stunning 1214 sq ft newer home in the gated Riverdale Village Mobile Home Park. Boasting 3-Bedrooms and 2-Bathrooms, this splitwing residence is completely turn-key and ready for you! The interior and exterior of this house is been well maintained by current owners, dual-pane windows and recessed LED lighting throughout the house, you will love the granite countertops in this kitchen. Spacious bedrooms and an amazing primary bedroom with dual closets and an in suite bathroom. Enjoy premium community amenities such as a sparkling pool, gym, game center, soccer and basketball courts, and aclubhouse with a full kitchen and recreational room. There's even a playground and dog station, ensuring delight for every familymember. This home combines comfort with a vibrant community lifestyle. The vibrant neighborhood ambiance ensures that you willnot only enjoy your home but also a dynamic and engaging community experience.

13. 2016-11-05
    price $7,000
14. 2006-06-01
    soldstatus $18,500
15. 2006-04-10
    historical
16. 2005-10-25
    listed $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$1,620
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,484
• − Management: −$1,484
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable income: $4,232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,016
• After-tax cash flow: $4,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beardsley Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0604260
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $28,808
• Composite: 9.63/100
• National rank: #9841
• State rank: #501 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oildale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #680
• US rank: #20848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oildale, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 55,078
• Household income: $62,445
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2931.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 825.65
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.22%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+483.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $107,999 GEMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $108,000 GEMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $115,000 GEMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $125,000 GEMLS
• 2016-11-05 Price Changed $7,000 GEMLS
• 2006-06-01 Sold (MLS) $18,500 GEMLS
• 2006-04-10 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2005-10-25 Listed $18,500 GEMLS