16558 Timberwolf Trl · Cleveland, TX 77327

$231,890

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $142/sqft · 13% below area Est $266k · 13% under $192/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW! Lennar Village Builder New Avante' Collection "Cupertino II" Plan with Brick Elevation "C" in Timbers Edge! This new single-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. All three bedrooms are nestled at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort, including the luxe owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Luxe owner’s suite
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• LUXE OWNER’S SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $232k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1804 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $178,751 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.79%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,990
• List price: $231,890
• Delta: -12.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16558 Timberwolf Trl	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,635 (0%)	0mo	$231,890	$142	85
16566 Timberwolf Trl	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+7%)	2mo	$309,990	$177	85
16503 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-7%)	0mo	$213,990	$141	80
16554 Timberwolf Trl	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-4%)	0mo	$248,990	$158	78
16895 Buckwood Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+10%)	2mo	$314,990	$176	78
16526 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+8%)	1mo	$271,990	$155	78
16229 Bergara Bend Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-11%)	2mo	$235,990	$163	77
16253 Bergara Bend Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-11%)	1mo	$202,990	$139	68
16238 Bergara Bend Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-11%)	1mo	$210,990	$145	67
21540 Rustic Elm Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-12%)	1mo	$199,000	$138	57
16249 Bergara Bend Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-11%)	0mo	$208,990	$144	53
20942 Canary Wood Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,545 (-6%)	1mo	$219,900	$142	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-58,984
• Equity at exit: $34,576

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-73,201
• Equity at exit: $20,050

Cash invested: $64,929 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 121 active · 61 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.8 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $249,990 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 66 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1804
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,216
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$290 /mo · $3,478/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,272

Max offer price $178,751

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-207	-5% $-287	+0% $-367	+5% $-447	+10% $-527
Rent	-10% $-510	-5% $-439	+0% $-367	+5% $-296	+10% $-225
Rate	-1.0pp $-250	-0.5pp $-308	base $-367	+0.5pp $-427	+1.0pp $-488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,972
• Closing costs: $6,957
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15171 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,650	$1.07	15d	1	0.64mi
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	73d	1	0.77mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	1d	59	1.13mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar
• HOA & community: Member of Timbers Edge Community AssociationAnnual association fee of $2,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-family home layout with 2 storiesSlab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (12 x 17)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (11 x 15)First-floor bedroom (11 x 10)First-floor bedroom (10 x 10)Second-floor bedroom (11 x 12)Up to 3 additional possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Porch (17 x 6)Family room (16 x 13)Dining room (10 x 15)Bonus room (14 x 12)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (washer/dryer details not listed)

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $231,890 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $231,890 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $231,890 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-05-19
   price $231,890 495-char remark
5. 2026-05-11
   price $233,390 495-char remark
6. 2026-05-07
   price $229,240 495-char remark
7. 2026-05-05
   price $236,240 495-char remark
8. 2026-04-30
   price $240,340 495-char remark
9. 2026-04-27
   price $244,340 495-char remark
10. 2026-04-25
    price $249,040 495-char remark
11. 2026-04-16
    price $253,040 495-char remark
12. 2026-04-13
    price $257,090 495-char remark
13. 2026-04-09
    price $261,140 495-char remark
14. 2026-04-07
    price $265,290 495-char remark
15. 2026-04-02
    price $269,990 495-char remark
16. 2026-04-02
    listed $291,990 Active 495-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,989
• − Property taxes: −$3,478
• − Insurance: −$1,159
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$6,746
• Taxable loss: −$8,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,032
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new single-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance design with an open-concept floorplan. The property is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Installing smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Piney Woods El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 713,896 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar
• HOA & community: Member of Timbers Edge Community AssociationAnnual association fee of $2,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-family home layout with 2 storiesSlab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (12 x 17)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (11 x 15)First-floor bedroom (11 x 10)First-floor bedroom (10 x 10)Second-floor bedroom (11 x 12)Up to 3 additional possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Porch (17 x 6)Family room (16 x 13)Dining room (10 x 15)Bonus room (14 x 12)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (washer/dryer details not listed)

Price history

-20.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $231,890 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $233,390 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $229,240 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $236,240 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $240,340 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $244,340 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $249,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $253,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $257,090 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $261,140 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $265,290 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $291,990 HARMLS