1388 Ammerman Pike · Cynthiana, KY 41031

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 938 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1964 1.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 1388 Ammerman Pike! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for someone with vision to bring it back to life. Situated on a 1-acre lot just outside of town, the setting offers space, privacy, and convenience. The home does need repairs and is best suited for cash or conventional financing. Whether you're looking to renovate for yourself or take on your next project, this property offers plenty of potential. Includes a storage building for added utility. Selling AS-IS.

Key facts

• Storage building
• 1 acre lot
• 1.05 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; 938 total building area
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Few trees on the lot

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Propane heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring; Crawl space basement; No fireplace; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.6% in Cynthiana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#113 in KY, #4,911 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Harrison County (town): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #133 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Harrison County Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 607 students, 58% FRL); Harrison County High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #74 of 254 statewide, top 29%, 865 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harrison County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $139k implies a 337% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.08%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $100,591
• Equity at exit: $125,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.10×
• Total profit: $276,482
• Equity at exit: $270,046

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41031

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $438/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,042

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $470	-5% $431	+0% $392	+5% $352	+10% $313
Rent	-10% $270	-5% $331	+0% $392	+5% $452	+10% $513
Rate	-1.0pp $462	-0.5pp $427	base $392	+0.5pp $356	+1.0pp $319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   price $139,000
3. 2026-04-02
   listed $149,000 Active
4. 2018-03-13
   soldstatus $31,800
5. 2011-04-07
   soldstatus $40,000
6. 1989-10-06
   soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $438 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$757/yr (+$63/mo · 172.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$438
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $2,541
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$610
• After-tax cash flow: $4,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County
• NCES district ID: 2102580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $39,744
• Composite: 22.28/100
• National rank: #8138
• State rank: #133 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cynthiana

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #4911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,748

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,605 people
• By 2030: 18,361 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 17,685 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 16,845 · -9.5%
• By 2075: 14,882 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 12,314 · -33.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.5) · D 25.1% · R 73.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -48.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.5 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.31%
• Current HPI: 339.482
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+231.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $139,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $149,000 ImagineMLS
• 2018-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $31,800 Public Records
• 2011-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1989-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $438 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.