616A Bosworth Ct Unit A · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$259,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Built 1976 8,276 sqft lot Est $260k · at est. $341/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car garage Oxford model with a private location in Leisure Village West. Don't miss the opportunity to own one of the lowest 2 bed, 2 bath homes in the area!

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($576/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• Recommended offer: $244k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $260k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.79%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,572
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
638B Finchley Ct	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	3mo	$245,000	$197	81
15 Normanton Ave	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+9%)	0mo	$330,000	$260	77
567A Mayfair Rd	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	3mo	$230,000	$185	71
11 Wycombe Way	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+9%)	4mo	$245,000	$193	68
478A Buckingham Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,164 (0%)	3mo	$259,000	$223	68
29 Oakham	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+9%)	3mo	$270,000	$213	66
715C Wooton Ct	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	2mo	$284,000	$228	65
655-A Pulham Ct	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	1mo	$225,000	$181	63
945A Liverpool Cir Unit A	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	0mo	$248,500	$200	55
71 N Buckingham Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+9%)	3mo	$325,000	$257	50
6D Gramercy Ln	0.71mi	2/1.5	1,050 (-10%)	2mo	$275,000	$262	47
61 Cambridge Cir Unit B	0.66mi	2/1.5	1,050 (-10%)	5mo	$249,000	$237	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-38,805
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-28,830
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,766 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,898/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$341
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,705

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	43d	1	0.69mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	1d	6	0.79mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	21d	1	1.01mi
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	43d	1	1.14mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	1d	3	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $341 · $4,092/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2024-12-09
   status Pending
2. 2024-10-21
   price $259,900
3. 2024-09-12
   listed $275,000 Active
4. 2024-09-10
   historical $275,000
5. 2015-04-15
   soldstatus $65,000 Sold 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Affordable 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car garage Oxford model with a private location in Leisure Village West. Don't miss the opportunity to own one of the lowest 2 bed, 2 bath homes in the area!

6. 2015-02-21
   historical 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Affordable 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car garage Oxford model with a private location in Leisure Village West. Don't miss the opportunity to own one of the lowest 2 bed, 2 bath homes in the area!

7. 2015-02-05
   price $69,900 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Affordable 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car garage Oxford model with a private location in Leisure Village West. Don't miss the opportunity to own one of the lowest 2 bed, 2 bath homes in the area!

8. 2014-12-16
   listed $76,900 Active 185-char remark

   Show marketing remark (185 chars)

   Affordable 2 bed, 2 bath, 1 car garage Oxford model with a private location in Leisure Village West. Don't miss the opportunity to own one of the lowest 2 bed, 2 bath homes in the area!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$3,898
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,655
• − Management: −$2,655
• − HOA: −$4,092
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$3,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$847
• After-tax cash flow: $1,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+238.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-09 Pending — MOMLS
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $259,900 MOMLS
• 2024-09-12 Listed $275,000 MOMLS
• 2024-09-10 Coming Soon $275,000 MOMLS
• 2015-04-15 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MOMLS
• 2015-02-21 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2015-02-05 Price Changed $69,900 MOMLS
• 2014-12-16 Listed $76,900 MOMLS