The Hampton Plan · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$277,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,754 sqft · SingleFamily · 167 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Hampton, a stunning example of one-level living that combines elegance and functionality. This home features 1,754 square feet of beautifully designed space, offering four spacious bedrooms and two meticulously crafted bathrooms. The open floor plan seamlessly connects the living areas, making it ideal for both relaxation and entertaining. Step outside onto the covered patio or the inviting covered porch, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or hosting evening gatherings. Each detail of the Hampton has been thoughtfully considered to enhance your lifestyle, providing a harmonious blend of comfort and style.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Two car garage
• Walk in closet

Tags

• COVERED FRONT ENTRY
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• INTEGRATED COVERED BACK PATIO
• WALK IN CLOSET
• WELL APPOINTED BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $277,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,847.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-458 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Kathryn Griffis El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 568 students, 34% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 505 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,461 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.50%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,847
• List price: $277,990
• Delta: -7.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3808 Arrowchop Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,698 (-3%)	1mo	$289,415	$170	71
3801 Arrowchop Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,812 (+3%)	3mo	$299,990	$166	63
3800 Arrowchop Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,663 (-5%)	2mo	$279,990	$168	62
3809 Arrowchop Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-6%)	2mo	$284,990	$173	61
3812 Arrowchop Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (+7%)	7mo	$324,682	$173	54
4593 County Road 2624	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,890 (+8%)	2mo	$434,900	$230	49
3830 County Road 2636	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,515 (-14%)	6mo	$350,000	$231	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-77,991
• Equity at exit: $45,006

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-105,183
• Equity at exit: $26,098

Cash invested: $84,517 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 50.4 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,990 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 157 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 505
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,583
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,528/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,704

Max offer price $235,638

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-249	-5% $-353	+0% $-458	+5% $-562	+10% $-666
Rent	-10% $-625	-5% $-541	+0% $-458	+5% $-374	+10% $-290
Rate	-1.0pp $-306	-0.5pp $-381	base $-458	+0.5pp $-536	+1.0pp $-615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,462
• Closing costs: $9,055
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price $277,990
• HOA & community: HOA fee $50 (period not specified)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family home
• Exterior features: Living area 1,754 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: The Hampton

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $277,990 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $277,990 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $277,990 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $277,990 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $277,990 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $277,990 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $277,990 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $277,990 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $277,990 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $277,990 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $277,990 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $277,990 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $277,990 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $277,990 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $277,990 Active 148 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $277,990 Active 147 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $277,990 Active 145 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $277,990 Active 143 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $277,990 Active 142 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $277,990 Active 141 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $277,990 Active 140 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $277,990 Active 139 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $277,990 Active 137 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $277,990 Active 136 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $277,990 Active 135 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $277,990 Active 134 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $277,990 Active 133 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $277,990 Active 132 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $277,990 Active 131 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $277,990 Active 130 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $277,990 Active 129 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $277,990 Active 128 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $277,990 Active 127 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $277,990 Active 126 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $277,990 Active 125 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $277,990 Active 124 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $277,990 Active 123 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $277,990 Active 122 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $277,990 Active 121 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $277,990 Active 120 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $277,990 Active 118 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $277,990 Active 117 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $277,990 Active 116 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $277,990 Active 115 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $277,990 Active 112 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $277,990 Active 111 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $277,990 Active 110 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $277,990 Active 109 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $277,990 Active 107 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $277,990 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,908
• − Property taxes: −$4,528
• − Insurance: −$1,509
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,781
• Taxable loss: −$10,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,618
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,770–$26,310 screening

The Hampton Plan is a well-maintained single-family home with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates focusing on exterior and landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kathryn Griffis El B TX #300/4,322 Nat'l #5,998/41,679 Middle Caddo Mills Middle C+ TX #301/1,662 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Caddo Mills H S B+ TX #82/1,632 Nat'l #1,629/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt · 97,090 people
• City population: 10,265
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,265
• Household income: $95,428
• Rent vs Own: 13.0% rent · 87.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price $277,990
• HOA & community: HOA fee $50 (period not specified)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family home
• Exterior features: Living area 1,754 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: The Hampton