8129 SE 70th Ave · Newberry, FL 32693

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Built 1996 Good condition 9,148 sqft lot Est $148k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Pull into the drive at 8129 SE 70th Avenue and the difference is immediate. This fully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home has been updated from top to bottom with brand-new appliances, upgraded LED lighting throughout, fresh finishes, modern fixtures, and a layout that feels more usable than most homes in this price range. Set on a paved road in Trenton with blacktop and limerock driveway access, this property creates a rare combination of affordability, functionality, and move-in-ready convenience that buyers continue searching for throughout North Florida. Inside, the vaulted ceilings help the main living area feel open and comfortable while the electric fireplace creates a warm focal point

Key facts

• Decorative lighting
• Fully remodeled
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES
• UPGRADED LED LIGHTING
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• DECORATIVE LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Gilchrist school district

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Located in Waccasassa Campsites
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Built on approximately 0.21-acre lot
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.2% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilchrist (rural): math 66% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #9 of 73 in FL (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 94 units permitted in Gilchrist County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Gilchrist County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,713 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.05%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,352
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8380 SE 69th Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,033 (-15%)	4mo	$14,000	$14	52
7350 SE 78th Pl	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+11%)	10mo	$87,500	$65	50
6570 SE 84th Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-14%)	4mo	$164,500	$158	50
9160 SE 66 Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+7%)	10mo	$157,500	$122	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $105,629
• Equity at exit: $161,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.08×
• Total profit: $304,730
• Equity at exit: $347,758

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32693

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $179,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$1,405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$337
• After-tax cash flow: $1,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is move-in ready with modern updates and a great location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping and mulching — Improves curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Adding a small garden bed — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and mulching — Improves curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Adding a small garden bed — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilchrist
• NCES district ID: 1200630
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,610
• Composite: 53.01/100
• National rank: #1522
• State rank: #9 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,704
• Population (ZIP): 11,692

Population outlook (Gilchrist County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,730 people
• By 2030: 17,722 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 17,393 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 16,597 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 14,300 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 11,498 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Gilchrist

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.81%
• Current HPI: 363.4299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $179,000 DGLMLS