440 S Walnut St · Albany, TX 76430

$37,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1915 10,000 sqft lot Est $65k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1915

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#361 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Albany ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #398 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nancy Smith El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 263 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 35% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $528 of equity ($259 loan paydown + $269 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Shackelford County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.21%
• DSCR: 3.95
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,392
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
832 Rose St	0.55mi	2/1.0	1,089 (+2%)	4mo	$109,000	$100	68
532 S 2nd St	0.35mi	1/1.5 (-1)	988 (-8%)	9mo	$59,900	$61	56
148 N Avenue A	0.39mi	2/2.0	938 (-12%)	16mo	$32,000	$34	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $37,108
• Equity at exit: $12,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.22×
• Total profit: $86,341
• Equity at exit: $15,868

Cash invested: $10,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76430

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $739/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $347

Max offer price $37,500

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,375
• Closing costs: $1,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2023-09-26
   status Pending
2. 2023-09-21
   listed $37,500 Active
3. 1997-06-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $739 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $739 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,101
• − Property taxes: −$739
• − Insurance: −$188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,037
• − Management: −$1,037
• − Depreciation: −$1,091
• Taxable income: $6,768
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,624
• After-tax cash flow: $5,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albany ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807680
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,835
• Composite: 34.59/100
• National rank: #5159
• State rank: #398 of 826 in TX

Livability — Albany

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #361
• US rank: #7764

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Albany, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,383

Population outlook (Shackelford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,413 people
• By 2030: 3,467 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 3,543 · +3.8%
• By 2050: 3,610 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 3,872 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 3,822 · +12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shackelford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+82.2) · D 8.4% · R 90.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -71.5pp · 2024: -82.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+82.2 2020: R+83.2 2016: R+84.9 2012: R+79.8 2008: R+71.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.72%
• Current HPI: 113.1423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2023-09-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-09-21 Listed $37,500 NTREIS
• 1997-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $739 · +106.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.