5813 Rose Ln · Palm River-Clair Mel, FL 33619

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1920 0.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Alert - Priced to Sell! Located in a highly sought-after area of Tampa just across from Palm River, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a spacious lot with mature trees and loads of potential. Enjoy easy access to downtown Tampa, Ybor City, and major highways--making it an ideal location for homeowners or Airbnb investors alike. Inside, you'll find a recently updated kitchen with modern finishes, offering a great head start on renovations. While the property experienced water damage from a past hurricane and needs some repairs, it's being sold as-is and priced to move quickly. No HOA! Whether you're a savvy investor or a handy homeowner looking for your next project, this property is a must-see opportunity in a prime location.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• No hoa
• Prime location

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• MATURE TREES
• EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN
• RECENTLY UPDATED KITCHEN
• NO HOA
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-915/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (7.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palm River Elementary School (math 28% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 384 students, 80% FRL); Giunta Middle School (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 857 students, 74% FRL); Blake High School (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,537 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 52% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $185k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,525 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.11%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-40,560
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-63,637
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33619

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,677/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,148

Max offer price $171,525

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $28	-5% $-24	+0% $-76	+5% $-129	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-157	+0% $-76	+5% $5	+10% $86
Rate	-1.0pp $17	-0.5pp $-29	base $-76	+0.5pp $-124	+1.0pp $-173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5840 Langston Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	1.5	1340	$2,000	$1.49	26d	1	0.43mi
5618 S 12th Ave Unit Na Tampa, FL	3.0	1.5	1356	$1,950	$1.44	26d	1	0.60mi
6807 Kingston Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$2,000	$1.92	6d	1	0.72mi
522 Wheaton Trent Pl Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1183	$1,799	$1.52	26d	1	0.87mi
742 Palm Bay Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,675	$1.91	14d	1	0.97mi
4728 Pickering Harbor Pl Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1516	$2,200	$1.45	4d	1	0.99mi
4728 Pickering Harbor Pl Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1516	$2,200	$1.45	1d	1	0.99mi
7702 Rivergate Dr Tampa, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	911	$1,375	$1.51	16d	2	1.13mi
873 Tennyson Mill Cir Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1864	$3,000	$1.61	26d	1	1.15mi
870 Tennyson Mill Cir Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1864	$3,200	$1.72	26d	1	1.19mi
7703 Southside Ln Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	968	$3,300	$3.41	26d	1	1.20mi
8014 Tommy Ct Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	965	$1,695	$1.76	5d	6	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending 750-char remark

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   Investor Alert - Priced to Sell! Located in a highly sought-after area of Tampa just across from Palm River, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a spacious lot with mature trees and loads of potential. Enjoy easy access to downtown Tampa, Ybor City, and major highways--making it an ideal location for homeowners or Airbnb investors alike. Inside, you'll find a recently updated kitchen with modern finishes, offering a great head start on renovations. While the property experienced water damage from a past hurricane and needs some repairs, it's being sold as-is and priced to move quickly. No HOA! Whether you're a savvy investor or a handy homeowner looking for your next project, this property is a must-see opportunity in a prime location.

2. 2026-03-31
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   Investor Alert - Priced to Sell! Located in a highly sought-after area of Tampa just across from Palm River, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a spacious lot with mature trees and loads of potential. Enjoy easy access to downtown Tampa, Ybor City, and major highways--making it an ideal location for homeowners or Airbnb investors alike. Inside, you'll find a recently updated kitchen with modern finishes, offering a great head start on renovations. While the property experienced water damage from a past hurricane and needs some repairs, it's being sold as-is and priced to move quickly. No HOA! Whether you're a savvy investor or a handy homeowner looking for your next project, this property is a must-see opportunity in a prime location.

3. 2026-03-30
   listed $185,000 Active 750-char remark

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   Investor Alert - Priced to Sell! Located in a highly sought-after area of Tampa just across from Palm River, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a spacious lot with mature trees and loads of potential. Enjoy easy access to downtown Tampa, Ybor City, and major highways--making it an ideal location for homeowners or Airbnb investors alike. Inside, you'll find a recently updated kitchen with modern finishes, offering a great head start on renovations. While the property experienced water damage from a past hurricane and needs some repairs, it's being sold as-is and priced to move quickly. No HOA! Whether you're a savvy investor or a handy homeowner looking for your next project, this property is a must-see opportunity in a prime location.

4. 2026-03-30
   listed $185,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (750 chars)

   Investor Alert - Priced to Sell! Located in a highly sought-after area of Tampa just across from Palm River, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on a spacious lot with mature trees and loads of potential. Enjoy easy access to downtown Tampa, Ybor City, and major highways--making it an ideal location for homeowners or Airbnb investors alike. Inside, you'll find a recently updated kitchen with modern finishes, offering a great head start on renovations. While the property experienced water damage from a past hurricane and needs some repairs, it's being sold as-is and priced to move quickly. No HOA! Whether you're a savvy investor or a handy homeowner looking for your next project, this property is a must-see opportunity in a prime location.

5. 2012-08-22
   soldstatus $105,100
6. 2011-03-16
   listed $32,000
7. 1982-10-01
   soldstatus $31,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,677 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,677 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,677
• − Insurance: −$6,044
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,969
• − Management: −$1,969
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,787
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$909
• After-tax cash flow: $-6/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm River-Clair Mel

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm River-Clair Mel, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 40,302
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,396
• Household income: $66,134
• Rent vs Own: 49.2% rent · 50.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2006.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 36% Black 28% White 27% Two or more races 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 13% Cuban 11% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.52%
• Current HPI: 375.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.14%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+487.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — SCMLS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $185,000 SCMLS
• 2012-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $105,100 Public Records
• 2011-03-16 Listed $32,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1982-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,677 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.