465 19th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$114,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1920 3,375 sqft lot Est $103k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Two unit income property. Roof 2008, rebuilt front porch 2007. Fully rented. Complete remodel of second floor apartment. Attic insulated

Key facts

• Brand-new carpeting
• Updated countertop
• Newer cabinetry

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• MODERNIZED ELECTRICAL PANELS
• NEWLY RENOVATED BATHROOM
• BRAND-NEW CARPETING
• NEWER CABINETRY
• UPDATED COUNTERTOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $999 ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $500/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,348/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 230% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $115k implies a 538% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $108,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.27%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $103,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
746 17th St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,475 (-0%)	1mo	$72,000	$49	74
547 21st St	0.20mi	5/2.0	1,534 (+4%)	12mo	$129,900	$85	74
614 20th St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,570 (+6%)	1mo	$100,000	$64	73
420 18th St	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,632 (+11%)	3mo	$115,000	$70	67
548 19th St	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,265 (-14%)	1mo	$62,500	$49	63
445 18th St	0.08mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-11%)	15mo	$55,000	$42	61
555 25th St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (+10%)	7mo	$128,000	$79	55
2771 Livingston Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-5%)	7mo	$88,000	$63	53
2405 Independence Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (+3%)	18mo	$127,000	$83	51
1119 15th St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (+1%)	15mo	$128,000	$86	48
434 23rd St	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (+11%)	24mo	$130,000	$80	48
1004 19th St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,577 (+7%)	21mo	$52,000	$33	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $45,097
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.78×
• Total profit: $121,517
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14303

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,463/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $999

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,083

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,064	-5% $1,032	+0% $999	+5% $967	+10% $934
Rent	-10% $814	-5% $906	+0% $999	+5% $1,092	+10% $1,185
Rate	-1.0pp $1,057	-0.5pp $1,028	base $999	+0.5pp $969	+1.0pp $939

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,348
Total (2 units)			$2,348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.51mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	2d	1	0.52mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.75mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	2d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-11-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-10
   listed $114,900 Active
3. 2025-01-17
   soldstatus $18,000
4. 2011-06-03
   soldstatus $18,000 137-char remark

   Show marketing remark (137 chars)

   Two unit income property. Roof 2008, rebuilt front porch 2007. Fully rented. Complete remodel of second floor apartment. Attic insulated

5. 2011-06-01
   soldstatus $18,000
6. 2010-03-22
   listed $22,900 137-char remark

   Show marketing remark (137 chars)

   Two unit income property. Roof 2008, rebuilt front porch 2007. Fully rented. Complete remodel of second floor apartment. Attic insulated

7. 1999-05-07
   soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,463 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,463 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$2,463
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $10,852
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,604
• After-tax cash flow: $9,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,156
• Household income: $45,646
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 230.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.37%
• Current HPI: 311.8094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+575.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $114,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 2011-06-03 Sold (MLS) $18,000 WNYREIS
• 2011-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 2010-03-22 Listed $22,900 WNYREIS
• 1999-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,463 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.