580 Us Hwy 158 Business East · Warrenton, NC 27589

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Built 1962 Poor condition 2.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity in Warrenton. Located at 580 US Highway 158 Business East, this property offers strong potential for renovation, rental, or resale. Conveniently situated within walking distance to historic downtown Warrenton with local shops and dining. Just a short drive to Lake Gaston and Kerr Lake, providing access to boating, fishing, and outdoor recreation. Ideal for investors seeking a property with potential in a growing area. Investor opportunity in Warrenton. Located at 580 US Highway 158 Business East, this property offers strong potential for renovation, rental, or resale. Conveniently situated within walking distance to historic downtown Warrenton with local shops and dinin

Key facts

• Boating
• Kerr lake
• Lake gaston

Tags

• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN WARRENTON
• LOCAL SHOPS
• DINING
• LAKE GASTON
• KERR LAKE
• BOATING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: One covered carport space; Three open parking spaces (four total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Community sewer; Electric service available
• Home design: Single-story house; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Raised foundation; Non-waterfront property; Lot of approximately 2.75 acres; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms; all on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; No central air
• Interior features: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Hardwood and laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#250 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Warren County Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #174 of 178 in NC (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mariam Boyd Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,405 of 1,410 statewide, top 100%, 341 students, 99% FRL); Warren County High (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #488 of 535 statewide, top 91%, 384 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 79% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 255 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.26%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.25×
• Total profit: $81,972
• Equity at exit: $78,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.46×
• Total profit: $213,268
• Equity at exit: $167,396

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27589

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $614	-5% $583	+0% $552	+5% $520	+10% $489
Rent	-10% $434	-5% $493	+0% $552	+5% $610	+10% $669
Rate	-1.0pp $597	-0.5pp $574	base $552	+0.5pp $528	+1.0pp $504

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $90,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $5,514
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,323
• After-tax cash flow: $5,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 30/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations to improve its condition and increase its value for both resale and rental. The independent image shows significant damage and wear, indicating a major investment is needed.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The independent image shows visible damage and wear on the roof, indicating a major repair is needed.
• Major exterior paint — The independent image shows peeling paint on the brick exterior, indicating a major repair is needed.
• Major flooring — The independent image shows worn carpet in the bedrooms and living areas, indicating a major replacement is needed.
• Major wallpaper — The independent image shows damaged wallpaper in the bedrooms and living areas, indicating a major replacement is needed.
• Major bathroom fixtures — The independent image shows outdated fixtures and tiles in the bathroom, indicating a major renovation is needed.
• Major kitchen cabinets — The independent image shows outdated cabinets in the kitchen, indicating a major renovation is needed.
• Major HVAC unit — The independent image shows an HVAC unit in poor condition, indicating a major repair or replacement is needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — A new roof will improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both exterior painting — New paint will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both wallpaper removal and replacement — New wallpaper will improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both bathroom renovation — A new bathroom will improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both kitchen renovation — A new kitchen will improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both HVAC replacement — A new HVAC unit will improve the home's comfort and increase its value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The independent image shows visible damage and wear on the roof, indicating a major repair is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · The independent image shows peeling paint on the brick exterior, indicating a major repair is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The independent image shows worn carpet in the bedrooms and living areas, indicating a major replacement is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
wallpaper · The independent image shows damaged wallpaper in the bedrooms and living areas, indicating a major replacement is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · The independent image shows outdated fixtures and tiles in the bathroom, indicating a major renovation is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · The independent image shows outdated cabinets in the kitchen, indicating a major renovation is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC unit · The independent image shows an HVAC unit in poor condition, indicating a major repair or replacement is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — A new roof will improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both exterior painting — New paint will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both wallpaper removal and replacement — New wallpaper will improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — A new bathroom will improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both kitchen renovation — A new kitchen will improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both HVAC replacement — A new HVAC unit will improve the home's comfort and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704740
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,433
• Composite: 14.62/100
• National rank: #9409
• State rank: #174 of 178 in NC

Livability — Warrenton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #11101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing D+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,763

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,664 people
• By 2030: 17,641 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 15,442 · -17.3%
• By 2050: 13,634 · -27.0%
• By 2075: 10,523 · -43.6%
• By 2100: 7,777 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 27% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 58.8% · R 39.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 39.5pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+25.7 2016: D+33.2 2012: D+36.0 2008: D+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.64%
• Current HPI: 303.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $90,000 TMLS