139 Cedar Dr · Briar, TX 76020

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2018 1.00 ac lot Est $288k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on a heavily wooded one-acre lot just minutes from Eagle Mountain Lake, this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with a dedicated office offers the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Recent updates include fresh interior paint throughout, luxury vinyl plank flooring in the main living areas, and new carpet in all bedrooms. Surrounded by mature trees, the property provides a peaceful retreat while remaining close to shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation. Enjoy spacious living, modern finishes, and room to spread out both inside and out.

Key facts

• New carpet
• Heavily wooded lot
• Updated home

Tags

• HEAVILY WOODED LOT
• UPDATED HOME
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW CARPET
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1 acre (partially wooded); No known restrictions; Possession at closing/funding or negotiable
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with gravel surface; No garage or covered/carport spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: City water; Septic
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 2018 (preowned); Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Window coverings; Two living areas; One dining area; One-level layout
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-687/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.0% in Briar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#574 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Azle ISD (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,144 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,496
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
345 Briar Oaks Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,848 (-6%)	10mo	$270,000	$146	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-49,764
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-54,332
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76020

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,350/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,324

Max offer price $264,892

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 566-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $275,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,350 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,683/yr (+$140/mo · 50.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,350
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,161
• − Management: −$2,161
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,434
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,304
• After-tax cash flow: $618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Azle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809200
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,473
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4900
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Briar

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #574
• US rank: #10986

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Briar, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,602
• Household income: $87,298
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 433.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.72%
• Current HPI: 287.155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $275,000 NTREIS
• 1999-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,350 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.