1610 Mason Knights Dr · Houston, TX 77493

$345,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2014 7,200 sqft lot Est $381k · 10% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well priced 5 bed, 3.5 bathroom home in Stone Crest subdivision. When you walk in the front door you are greeted by an office space on the left, nice dinning room space, and ahead is the kitchen with a separate breakfast area. The Living room has tall ceilings and ample lighting coming in from the huge living room windows. The backyard is a good size and backs into a green space. The Primary bedroom on the first floor has a spacious closet and ensuite. Utility room is also on the first floor with washer and dryer connections. Go upstairs and discover a spacious game room to the left and a media room as well as 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Imagine yourself living close to good schools as well

Key facts

• Office space
• Dining room space
• Tall ceilings

Tags

• OFFICE SPACE
• DINING ROOM SPACE
• SEPARATE BREAKFAST AREA
• TALL CEILINGS
• AMPLE LIGHTING
• GOOD SIZE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-443 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Morton Ranch H S (math 31% / reading 55%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 2,718 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 27% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,657 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.51%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $381,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1610 Mason Knights Dr	0.00mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,050 (0%)	1mo	$345,000	$113	94
24626 Blane Dr	0.13mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,112 (+2%)	0mo	$368,000	$118	83
24610 Mason Knights Ct	0.04mi	4/3.5	2,772 (-9%)	7mo	$345,000	$124	78
1247 S Maple Dr	0.36mi	4/3.5	2,932 (-4%)	1mo	$375,000	$128	76
24735 Colonial Maple Dr	0.21mi	4/3.5	2,802 (-8%)	7mo	$333,000	$119	71
24514 Lake Path Cir	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,921 (-4%)	3mo	$364,900	$125	68
1306 S Maple Dr	0.32mi	4/3.5	2,834 (-7%)	8mo	$375,000	$132	66
24311 Lanning Dr	0.51mi	4/3.5	2,820 (-8%)	1mo	$405,000	$144	63
24802 Colonial Maple Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,637 (-14%)	3mo	$334,999	$127	62
25043 Lenora Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,873 (-6%)	5mo	$334,990	$117	60
24306 Lanning Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,629 (-14%)	4mo	$338,000	$129	45
2107 Auburn Vale St	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,702 (-11%)	7mo	$330,000	$122	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-92,872
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-150,877
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$905 /mo · $10,862/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $-443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,660

Max offer price $266,657

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-248	-5% $-346	+0% $-443	+5% $-541	+10% $-639
Rent	-10% $-688	-5% $-566	+0% $-443	+5% $-321	+10% $-199
Rate	-1.0pp $-270	-0.5pp $-356	base $-443	+0.5pp $-533	+1.0pp $-624

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1739 Palmetto Park Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.5	2998	$3,100	$1.03	45d	1	0.23mi
2222 Princess Snow Cir Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2958	$2,425	$0.82	14d	1	1.15mi
1724 Partnership Way Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–3.5	1536	$3,340	$2.17	0d	86	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
7. 2026-03-16
   status Active
8. 2026-03-06
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2026-01-26
   listed $345,000 Active
10. 2025-11-04
    historical
11. 2025-05-19
    listed $398,500 Active
12. 2024-04-03
    historical $2,800
13. 2024-02-27
    listed $2,800
14. 2018-12-23
    status Pending
15. 2018-12-11
    status Option Pending
16. 2018-12-11
    historical
17. 2018-06-04
    price $312,000
18. 2018-03-07
    price $301,000
19. 2018-03-02
    price $295,000
20. 2017-10-10
    price $285,000
21. 2017-09-25
    listed $290,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,862 · $905/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,862 · $905/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$10,862
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,974
• − Management: −$2,974
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$11,114
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,667
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+19.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $398,500 HARMLS
• 2024-04-03 Rental Removed $2,800 HARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Listed for Rent $2,800 HARMLS
• 2018-12-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-12-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-12-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-06-04 Price Changed $312,000 HARMLS
• 2018-03-07 Price Changed $301,000 HARMLS
• 2018-03-02 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2017-10-10 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2017-09-25 Listed $290,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,862 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.