Mesilla Plan · Marion, TX 78124

$313,991

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,601 sqft · SingleFamily · 522 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Mesilla floor plan in Marion, TX, is designed for your lifestyle. The first-floor study makes working from home a breeze, while the spacious great room invites connection. Upstairs, the owner's suite offers a private retreat paired with a nearby game room for endless fun. In this new home design, comfort and practicality come together seamlessly in an affordable home.

Key facts

• First floor study
• Game room
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR STUDY
• UPSTAIRS OWNER'S SUITE
• GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $313,991 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $320,060.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $314k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-460 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 535 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 29d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 522 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,591 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 522 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.48%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,060
• List price: $313,991
• Delta: -1.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
445 Raven Row	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,601 (0%)	1mo	$334,631	$129	87
424 Raven Row	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,601 (0%)	2mo	$339,151	$130	86
1131 Crane Ct	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,601 (0%)	1mo	$344,331	$132	86
475 White Heron Way	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,601 (0%)	1mo	$339,271	$130	86
1103 Crane Ct	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,601 (0%)	2mo	$344,631	$132	83
506 Nightingale Ave	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,496 (-4%)	0mo	$369,475	$148	80
431 Nightingale Ave	0.19mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,721 (+5%)	2mo	$384,275	$141	72
123 Colette	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,402 (-8%)	3mo	$575,000	$239	72
502 Nightingale Ave	0.23mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,721 (+5%)	1mo	$394,600	$145	72
1508 Whistlers Way	0.24mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,721 (+5%)	1mo	$399,595	$147	71
428 Raven Row	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,331 (-10%)	1mo	$309,530	$133	70
421 Raven Row	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,284 (-12%)	1mo	$304,270	$133	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-81,055
• Equity at exit: $47,722

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-107,857
• Equity at exit: $27,673

Cash invested: $89,617 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 35 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $325,391 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 228 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 535
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,376 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,801/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,958

Max offer price $253,482

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-239	-5% $-350	+0% $-460	+5% $-571	+10% $-681
Rent	-10% $-648	-5% $-554	+0% $-460	+5% $-366	+10% $-272
Rate	-1.0pp $-299	-0.5pp $-379	base $-460	+0.5pp $-543	+1.0pp $-627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,015
• Closing costs: $9,602
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
426 Nightingale Ave Santa Clara, TX	5.0	4.0	2832	$2,900	$1.02	93d	1	0.20mi
1115 Pigeon Ln Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,895	$1.07	24d	1	0.27mi
2207 Allison CRK Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,745	$0.94	64d	1	0.76mi
2207 Allison Creek Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,800	$0.97	28d	1	0.76mi
747 Thea MDWS Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,214	$1.19	18d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $313,991 Active 522 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $313,991 Active 520 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $313,991 Active 519 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $313,991 Active 518 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $313,991 Active 517 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $312,991 Active 514 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $312,991 Active 513 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $312,991 Active 512 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $312,991 Active 511 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $312,991 Active 509 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $312,991 Active 507 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $312,991 Active 506 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $312,991 Active 505 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $312,991 Active 504 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $312,991 Active 503 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $312,991 Active 501 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $312,991 Active 500 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $312,991 Active 499 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $312,991 Active 498 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $312,991 Active 497 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $312,991 Active 496 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $312,991 Active 495 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $312,991 Active 494 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $312,991 Active 493 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $312,991 Active 492 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $312,991 Active 490 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $312,991 Active 489 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $312,991 Active 488 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $312,991 Active 486 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $312,991 Active 485 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $312,991 Active 484 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $312,991 Active 483 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $312,991 Active 482 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $312,991 Active 481 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $312,991 Active 480 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $312,991 Active 479 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $312,991 Active 477 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $312,991 Active 475 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $312,991 Active 474 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $312,991 Active 471 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $312,991 Active 470 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $312,991 Active 469 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $312,991 Active 468 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $312,991 Active 466 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $312,991 Active 465 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $312,991 Active 462 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $312,991 Active 461 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $312,991 Active 460 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $312,991 Active 457 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $312,991 Active 456 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,928
• − Property taxes: −$4,801
• − Insurance: −$3,103
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,281
• − Management: −$2,281
• − Depreciation: −$9,311
• Taxable loss: −$11,194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,686
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Norma Krueger El Middle Marion Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Marion H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guadalupe · 196,854 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,907
• Household income: $82,534
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 47% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $312,991 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $332,991 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $331,991 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $332,991 Zillow
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $331,991 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $330,991 Zillow
• 2025-03-05 Listed $329,991 Zillow