17981 SE 106th Ct · The Villages, FL 34491

$160,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1993 7,841 sqft lot Est $196k · 18% under $179/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spotlessly clean and well maintained home has been freshly painted & includes all replacement windows installed in 2011. Bathroom has been tastefully updated and includes a large walk-in shower. Solar tubes bring in lots of natural light. All tile or laminate flooring throughout the home. New HVAC in 2015, 30 year roof installed in 2004, newer hot water tank. Tiled acrylic enclosed lanai overlooks nice backyard. 1 car garage with privacy screen PLUS a golf cart garage w/ room for storage. Don't miss this opportunity to own such a perfect home at an affordable price!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Front porch
• Solar tubes

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• FRONT PORCH
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• LARGE WALK-IN SHOWER
• SOLAR TUBES
• ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Belleview Elementary School (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 650 students, 73% FRL); Belleview High School (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,783 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 705 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $160k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.47%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,624
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10346 SE 178th St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (+1)	768 (-3%)	17mo	$189,900	$247	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-17,592
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,365
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,314/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$179
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,512

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13740 Lead LN The Villages, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$1,289	$1.25	21d	38	1.07mi
13765 NE 136th Loop Lady Lake, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$1,287	$1.19	21d	36	1.08mi
1532 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$2,950	$2.70	23d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $179 · $2,148/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $160,000
3. 2026-03-29
   listed $175,900 Active
4. 2017-05-22
   soldstatus $98,000 578-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   Spotlessly clean and well maintained home has been freshly painted & includes all replacement windows installed in 2011. Bathroom has been tastefully updated & includes large walk-in shower. Solar tubes bring in lots of natural light, all tile or laminate flooring throughout the home. New HVAC 2015,30 year roof installed in 2004, newer hot water tank. Tiled acrylic enclosed Lanai overlooks nice backyard. 1 car garage w/ privacy screen PLUS a golf cart garage w/ room for storage. Don't miss this opportunity to own such a perfect home at an affordable price.

5. 2017-05-22
   soldstatus $98,000 574-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   Spotlessly clean and well maintained home has been freshly painted & includes all replacement windows installed in 2011. Bathroom has been tastefully updated & includes large walk-in shower. Solar tubes bring in lots of natural light, all tile or laminate flooring throughout the home. New HVAC 2015,30 year roof installed in 2004, newer hot water tank. Tiled acrylic enclosed Lanai overlooks nice backyard. 1 car garage w/ privacy screen PLUS a golf cart garage w/ room for storage. Don't miss this opportunity to own such a perfect home at an affordable price.

6. 2017-02-07
   listed $104,900 578-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   Spotlessly clean and well maintained home has been freshly painted & includes all replacement windows installed in 2011. Bathroom has been tastefully updated & includes large walk-in shower. Solar tubes bring in lots of natural light, all tile or laminate flooring throughout the home. New HVAC 2015,30 year roof installed in 2004, newer hot water tank. Tiled acrylic enclosed Lanai overlooks nice backyard. 1 car garage w/ privacy screen PLUS a golf cart garage w/ room for storage. Don't miss this opportunity to own such a perfect home at an affordable price.

7. 2017-02-07
   listed $104,900 574-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   Spotlessly clean and well maintained home has been freshly painted & includes all replacement windows installed in 2011. Bathroom has been tastefully updated & includes large walk-in shower. Solar tubes bring in lots of natural light, all tile or laminate flooring throughout the home. New HVAC 2015,30 year roof installed in 2004, newer hot water tank. Tiled acrylic enclosed Lanai overlooks nice backyard. 1 car garage w/ privacy screen PLUS a golf cart garage w/ room for storage. Don't miss this opportunity to own such a perfect home at an affordable price.

8. 2003-10-07
   soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,314 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$14/yr (+$1/mo · 1.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,314
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − HOA: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$237
• After-tax cash flow: $1,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+105.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Listed $175,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-22 Sold (MLS) $98,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-22 Sold (MLS) $98,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-07 Listed $104,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-07 Listed $104,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,314 · +22.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.