618 Robinson Dr · Jesup, GA 31545

$165,050

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,643 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1956 0.47 ac lot $100/sqft · 19% below area Est $205k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming starter home located just short distance from the park, offering a peaceful neighborhood setting with everyday convenience. This 4-bedroom, 2 full-bath home features both a living room and a separate den, providing flexible space for relaxing, entertaining, or working from home. A brand-new AC unit adds comfort and peace of mind, making this home move-in ready. The home offers a practical layout with natural light throughout and a manageable yard ideal for outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and local amenities, this property blends comfort, space, and accessibility. Highlights: 4 bedrooms / 2 full bathrooms Living room plus den New AC unit Short distance from the park Ideal starter home.

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.5% in Jesup — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#112 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne County (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #68 of 174 in GA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 163 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $165k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,244 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.52%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,900
• List price: $165,050
• Delta: -19.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
675 E Cherry St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-15%)	14mo	$295,000	$211	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,457
• Equity at exit: $24,609

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $26,839
• Equity at exit: $14,271

Cash invested: $46,214 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31545

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$866
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $981/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,286

Max offer price $165,050

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $460	-5% $413	+0% $366	+5% $320	+10% $273
Rent	-10% $228	-5% $297	+0% $366	+5% $436	+10% $505
Rate	-1.0pp $450	-0.5pp $408	base $366	+0.5pp $324	+1.0pp $280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,262
• Closing costs: $4,952
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
151 Arabian Ln Jesup, GA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	44d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,050 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,050 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,050 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,050 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,050 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $165,050 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $165,050 Price Change 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,995 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,995 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,995 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $185,995 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricestatusdays on market $185,995 Price Change 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,995 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,995 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,995 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,995 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    price $1,300
18. 2026-04-10
    price $1,500
19. 2026-03-05
    price $190,995 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming starter home located just short distance from the park, offering a peaceful neighborhood setting with everyday convenience. This 4-bedroom, 2 full-bath home features both a living room and a separate den, providing flexible space for relaxing, entertaining, or working from home. A brand-new AC unit adds comfort and peace of mind, making this home move-in ready. The home offers a practical layout with natural light throughout and a manageable yard ideal for outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and local amenities, this property blends comfort, space, and accessibility. Highlights: 4 bedrooms / 2 full bathrooms Living room plus den New AC unit Short distance from the park Ideal starter home.

20. 2026-02-11
    listed $195,000 New 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming starter home located just short distance from the park, offering a peaceful neighborhood setting with everyday convenience. This 4-bedroom, 2 full-bath home features both a living room and a separate den, providing flexible space for relaxing, entertaining, or working from home. A brand-new AC unit adds comfort and peace of mind, making this home move-in ready. The home offers a practical layout with natural light throughout and a manageable yard ideal for outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and local amenities, this property blends comfort, space, and accessibility. Highlights: 4 bedrooms / 2 full bathrooms Living room plus den New AC unit Short distance from the park Ideal starter home.

21. 2026-01-03
    listed $1,600
22. 2023-09-28
    historical $1,500
23. 2023-08-18
    historical $1,500
24. 2023-08-16
    listed $1,500
25. 2023-08-02
    listed $1,500
26. 2023-08-02
    historical
27. 2023-07-31
    listed
28. 2020-11-13
    soldstatus $50,000
29. 2020-11-13
    soldstatus $50,000
30. 2020-11-13
    soldstatus $50,000
31. 2019-09-09
    listed $77,900
32. 2019-02-26
    listed $77,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $981 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,518 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$537/yr (+$45/mo · 54.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,245
• − Property taxes: −$981
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$4,801
• Taxable income: $1,787
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$429
• After-tax cash flow: $3,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County
• NCES district ID: 1305550
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,918
• Composite: 29.3/100
• National rank: #6554
• State rank: #68 of 174 in GA

Livability — Jesup

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #8442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jesup, GA
• City population: 1,050
• Population (ZIP): 16,057

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,891 people
• By 2030: 28,388 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 27,396 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 26,135 · -9.5%
• By 2075: 23,253 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 19,481 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.8) · D 20.0% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -59.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.8 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+48.3 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.10%
• Current HPI: 249.3504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-98.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $1,300 RENTEC
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $1,500 RENTEC
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $190,995 GAMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $195,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed for Rent $1,600 RENTEC
• 2023-09-28 Rental Removed $1,500 RENTALBEAST
• 2023-08-18 Rental Removed $1,500 RENTEC
• 2023-08-16 Listed for Rent $1,500 RENTEC
• 2023-08-02 Listed for Rent $1,500 RENTALBEAST
• 2023-08-02 Rental Removed — RENTEC
• 2023-07-31 Listed for Rent — RENTEC
• 2020-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-13 Sold (MLS) $50,000 GAMLS
• 2020-11-13 Sold (MLS) $50,000 HABR
• 2019-09-09 Listed $77,900 GAMLS
• 2019-02-26 Listed $77,900 HABR

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $981 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.