319 Leta St · Auburndale, FL 33823

$159,997

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1966 5,419 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. * * * ATTENTION FIRST-TIME BUYERS! TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS INCREDIBLE OPPORTUNITY WITH OWNER FINANCING OPTIONS AND CLOSING COST ASSISTANCE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG OFFERS AND QUALIFIED BUYERS * * * Fully renovated and move-in ready! This solid block 3-bedroom home sits on an over-sized lot and offers a fresh, modern feel throughout with luxury premium vinyl plank flooring and a full interior refresh including newly painted ceilings, walls, and trim. Each bedroom features a brand-new ceiling fan and its own dedicated A/C unit, providing personalized comfort and energy efficiency. The bright kitchen is equipped with brand-new matching GE appliances incl

Key facts

• Dedicated a c unit
• Covered carport
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• BRAND NEW CEILING FAN
• DEDICATED A C UNIT
• SPACIOUS COVERED PORCH
• COVERED CARPORT
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated; Zoning: RG1; Lot approximately 0.12 acre (52 x 104)
• HOA & community: No association fees; Community has no listed amenities; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Concrete construction; Built-up roof; Block foundation; Approximately 2026 building area total source: appraiser
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Private mailbox; Chain-link fencing; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Auburndale Central Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 383 students, 64% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $160k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,597 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.00%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-11,435
• Equity at exit: $23,856

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $9,334
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,524 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $886/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,240

Max offer price $159,997

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,999
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 Twin Pines Ln Unit C Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	640	$1,000	$1.56	14d	1	0.45mi
711 Lake Jessie Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$1,400	$1.58	23d	1	0.78mi
912 Lake Jessie Dr Unit A Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$1,800	$2.25	3d	1	0.93mi
2366 Lake Dr NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1003	$1,350	$1.35	3d	1	1.06mi
4 Sandy Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	954	$1,620	$1.70	23d	1	1.20mi
249 Century Blvd Unit A Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,350	$1.55	3d	1	1.26mi
704 Sunset Ave Unit B Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,340	$1.58	14d	1	1.29mi
192 Julie Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,650	$1.47	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $159,997 Pending 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,997 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,997 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $159,997 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,997 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,997 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,997 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-05-07
   price $159,997
9. 2026-05-07
   status Active
10. 2026-05-04
    status Pending
11. 2026-03-31
    price $164,997
12. 2026-03-19
    price $169,997
13. 2026-03-06
    listed $174,997 Active
14. 2026-02-17
    historical
15. 2026-01-22
    price $179,900
16. 2026-01-18
    listed $189,900 Active
17. 2025-12-22
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $886 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$442/yr (+$37/mo · 49.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$886
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,463
• − Management: −$1,463
• − Depreciation: −$4,654
• Taxable income: $54
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13
• After-tax cash flow: $2,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+52.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $159,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $164,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $169,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $174,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-18 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $886 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.