616 Jenkins Dr · Hamburg, AR 71646

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1987 2.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

NEWLY RENOVATED PACKAGE DEAL AVAILABLE ALSO 2 BEDROOM 1 BATH INCLUDED ATTACHED LAND 2.2 ACRES ALL FOR 190,000.00!!

Key facts

• 2.2 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1987

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approx. lot size 23,087 sq ft (about 2.2 acres)
• Financial info: Annual taxes listed
• HOA & community: Annual HOA frequency

Exterior

• Parking: Parking for 4+ cars
• Utilities: Public water; Municipal electric service (Entergy); Natural gas
• Home design: Approx. 912 square feet
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Metal/Vinyl siding; 3-tab shingle roof; Road access via gravel and paved surfaces; Rural property inside city limits; Will not subdivide

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#125 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hamburg School District (town): math 24% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #187 of 238 in AR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashley County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,374 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.66%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-7,040
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $3,506
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71646

• Home prices YoY: -4.9%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $854 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $553/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $703

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $144	+0% $119	+5% $93	+10% $68
Rent	-10% $51	-5% $85	+0% $119	+5% $153	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $142	base $119	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $90,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 New Listing 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 New Listing 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 New Listing 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 114-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $90,000 New Listing 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $553 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $576 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$553
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$820
• − Management: −$820
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$57
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14
• After-tax cash flow: $1,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamburg School District
• NCES district ID: 0500042
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,669
• Composite: 20.69/100
• National rank: #8527
• State rank: #187 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hamburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #11736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hamburg, AR
• Population (ZIP): 6,683

Population outlook (Ashley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,757 people
• By 2030: 17,541 · -6.5%
• By 2040: 15,243 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 13,136 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 8,901 · -52.5%
• By 2100: 5,626 · -70.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.2% · R 73.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.9pp toward R · 2008: -28.1pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+43.2 2016: R+36.5 2012: R+25.4 2008: R+28.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.32%
• Current HPI: 161.0476
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $90,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $40,000 CARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $90,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $553 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.